Napoli vs. Juventus Serie A Odds, Picks, Prediction: Value Sitting With Visiting Side (Sept. 11)

Napoli vs. Juventus Odds

The biggest matchup in Serie A so far this season takes place in Naples on Saturday, when Napoli will host Juventus.

Napoli are off to a great start this season, having won their first two games, while Juventus are already behind the 8-ball. The visiting side has just one point from two games, including a loss at home to Empoli before the international break.

Let's break down this matchup, which could have significant top-four and Scudetto implications later this season.

Manager Spalletti Could Be Difference for Napoli

Luciano Spalletti will not have been the sexiest appointment of the summer, but he has a strong record of top-four finishes during his time with Roma and Inter Milan. That’s the goal this season for Napoli, and he may be the man to get them there.

So far, so good. Napoli have six points from a possible six thanks to a stoppage-time winner from striker Andrea Petagna against Genoa.

Spalletti’s team has been quite fortunate to have been awarded two penalties this season, though. Napoli’s 2.02 non-penalty expected goals rank 11th in Serie A. Their chance creation from open play is going to have to improve to make a top-four finish realistic.

Defensively, Kostas Manolas and Kalidou Koulibaly is about as good a center-back pairing as you’ll find on paper in Serie A. Between the two of them, Manolas is the only one to register 30 or more appearances in a season. Koulibaly has played in just 51 of a possible 76 games over the previous two seasons.

The most noteworthy absentee for Napoli will be Victor Osimhen, who was sent off during the opening game vs. Venezia.

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Juventus

A new era begins now for Juventus, one without Cristiano Ronaldo and with manager Massimiliano Allegri back in charge.

So far, unlike Napoli, things have not gone so great.

After a Ronaldo stoppage-time winner was ruled out in the opener against Udinese, Juventus suffered a  1-0 home loss to Empoli before the international break in the first real shocker of the season.

The problem for Juventus in that one was that it was a case of too little, too late. They registered 1.82 xG in the game, but 0.78 came from midfielder Manuel Locatelli, who only played 24 minutes.

It’s going to be a period of transition going forward. Ronaldo demands the ball, both through his over-the-top actions and simply his presence.

A lot is going to fall on the shoulders of Paulo Dybala and Federico Chiesa. Dybala has a track record of bailing out Juventus, but never really as the go-to guy offensively. Chiesa, meanwhile, broke out as a big-time playmaker late last season and then over the summer at Euro 2020 for Italy.

Defensively, the preferred pairing so far is Leonardo Bonucci and Matthijs de Ligt. Giorgio Chiellini will eventually get a chance next to either of those two, but getting de Ligt consistent minutes is clearly a priority compared to the 37-year-old Italian legend.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This game started the week about as close to a Pick'em as you can get.

That said, I’m going to back Juventus in the south of Italy. I’m concerned by the lack of chance creation from open play for Napoli. Juventus is not the team that great scoring opportunities will suddenly come against, especially with Allegri in charge again.

This Juventus team, especially with this manager, has won before without any superstars in the team. This seems like a great opportunity for them to establish themselves as the team to beat in Italy, despite having a down year in 2020-21.

The money on this one is coming in on Napoli, though. The line has moved in their favor, with Juventus’ Draw No Bet line moving into plus figures. Grab +105  odds at PointsBet in this matchup.

Pick: Juventus — Draw No Bet (+105)