Australia (1-1) and Paraguay (1-1) will face off today at 10:00 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
Paraguay is favored at a +188 price, with the over/under set at 1.5 (-160o / +125u) goals.
Let's get into my Australia vs. Paraguay prediction.
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score — No
My Australia vs. Paraguay best bet is that at least one team will fail to score. Given the high stakes and the fact that a draw benefits both sides, a cagey, low-scoring affair seems highly probable.
Paraguay vs Australia Odds
| Australia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -250 | 1.5 -160o / +125u | +290 |
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +170 | 1.5 -160o / +125u | +188 |
Paraguay vs Australia World Cup Preview
The betting markets for this match tell a fascinating story. In a rare occurrence, the draw is the favored outcome, with an implied probability of around 44%. This reflects the strong likelihood that both teams will be content to share the points. A draw would secure second place for Australia and almost certainly be enough for Paraguay to advance as one of the best third-place teams. This dynamic has driven the Asian Goal Line down to an exceptionally low 1.75, signaling that oddsmakers anticipate very few goals.
Historically, these two nations have never met in a competitive fixture, with their only three encounters being friendlies. Australia holds a slight edge with two wins and one draw. However, Australia's record against South American opponents in major tournaments is poor; they have never won, recording four losses and a single draw. Paraguay, meanwhile, has only faced an opponent from the Asian confederation once in this competition, a 1-0 victory over Iraq in 1986. Given the circumstances, past results are less relevant than the current tactical situation, which points overwhelmingly toward a conservative match where neither team will want to risk a defeat that could end their tournament journey.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Paraguay vs Australia picks.
Paraguay vs Australia Picks, Parlay
- Both Teams to Score — NO (-149)
- Under 2.0 Asian Goal Line (-159)
The logic behind these picks is heavily influenced by the group stage permutations. A draw is a mutually beneficial result, likely ensuring both Paraguay and Australia qualify for the knockout rounds. This scenario often leads to risk-averse tactics, where neither side is willing to overcommit offensively and leave themselves vulnerable. Expect both teams to prioritize defensive shape and control over all-out attack.
Paraguay has demonstrated a strong defensive foundation, conceding only 10 goals during its 18 South American qualifiers. They are comfortable playing without the ball, averaging just 38% possession during that campaign. Their offensive metrics are less impressive, with an average of just 0.43 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in this tournament, one of the lowest marks among all teams. Recent history supports a low-scoring game, as only one team has found the net in three of Paraguay’s last five matches.
Australia also enters this match with questions about their attacking firepower. Against the USA, they managed just 0.35 xG and only two shots on target. The Socceroos have seen goals at a premium in their recent games, with only one team scoring in eight of their last eight contests. If Paraguay sets up to defend and secure the point they need, Australia may struggle to break down their organized low block, which could lead to a stalemate with few clear-cut chances.
Paraguay vs Australia Projected Lineups
Australia Expected Lineup (5-4-1)
Goalkeeper: Beach
Defenders: Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos
Midfielders: Metcalfe, O'Neill, Oko-Engster, Irankunda
Forwards: Touré
Paraguay Expected Lineup (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Gill
Defenders: Cáceres, G. Gómez, Aderete, Alonso
Midfielders: Mauricio, Cubas, D. Gómez, Galarza
Forwards: Pitta, Enciso
Paraguay vs Australia Weather
This match should not be impacted by weather as it will be around 72 degrees and sunny around the scheduled start time in Santa Clara, Calif.
