France (3-0) and Paraguay (1-1-1) will face off today at 5:00 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
France is favored at -550, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-161o / +127u) goals.
Let's get into my Paraguay vs France prediction.
Paraguay vs France Prediction
- Pick: France to Win Both Halves (+125 at bet365)
My Paraguay vs France best bet is for France to win both halves. Les Bleus have been an offensive powerhouse throughout the tournament, while Paraguay's defense has shown vulnerabilities against top-tier attacks, making this a strong possibility.
Paraguay vs France Odds
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -174 | 2.5 -164o / 138u | -550 |
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +124 | 2.5 -164o / 138u | +1500 |
Paraguay vs France World Cup Preview
This Round of 16 clash presents a classic attack-versus-defense scenario. France has been unstoppable, scoring 13 goals from an expected goals (xG) figure of 9.20, demonstrating their clinical finishing. They are averaging an impressive 8.5 shots on target per match, a tournament high.
In contrast, Paraguay reached this stage through sheer defensive grit. They lead the competition in defensive interventions, averaging 25 tackles and 40 clearances per game. Their strategy will be to sit in a low block and attempt to frustrate the French attack, much like they did against Germany. However, their own offensive output is severely limited, ranking among the worst in the tournament with just 1.46 xG across four matches.
France's ability to find another gear in the second half is a significant advantage. They have scored eight of their 13 goals after halftime, a period when Paraguay's defense will be most vulnerable after enduring sustained pressure. Against Germany, Paraguay conceded a goal and 0.64 xG in the second period, highlighting a potential weakness France can exploit.
Historically, France has had the upper hand. They have won both of their previous World Cup meetings against Paraguay. Their most recent encounter was a 5-0 friendly victory in 2017, which underscores the significant gap in quality between the two nations. Given France's current form and historical dominance, a comfortable victory is the most likely outcome.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your France vs Paraguay picks.
Paraguay vs France Picks, Betting Analysis
- France To Win Both Halves (+125 at bet365)
- France To Win To Nil & France To Score in the Second Half (+100 at bet365)
France enters this knockout stage as the most efficient attacking team in the competition, and their star players are performing at an elite level. Kylian Mbappé has already scored six goals, while Ousmane Dembélé has four and Michael Olise has delivered five assists. This offensive firepower makes Les Bleus one of the most dangerous sides remaining.
The bet for France to win both halves has been a winning selection in three of their four matches in the 2026 tournament. The underlying metrics support this trend, with no team taking more shots on target than France's 34. Their incredible conversion rate of 17.81% suggests they can capitalize on their chances early and often.
Paraguay's defensive approach was exposed in their opening 4-1 loss to the USA. While they managed to hold off Germany, France presents a completely different challenge. Paraguay has faced 81 shots so far, the most in the tournament, and they will struggle to contain a French team that is relentless in attack.
Furthermore, France's tendency to score after the break is a key factor. Eight of their 13 goals have come in the second half. Against a Paraguayan side that will likely tire from absorbing constant pressure, France's ability to maintain intensity makes a win-to-nil combined with a second-half goal a valuable consideration.
Paraguay vs France Predicted Lineups
Paraguay Expected Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Gill
- Defenders: Caceres, Gomez, Canale, Alonso
- Midfielders: Almiron, Bobadilla, Cubas, Galarza
- Forwards: Avalos, Enciso
France Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Maignan
- Defenders: Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne
- Midfielders: Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Barcola
- Forwards: Mbappe
