Paris Saint-Germain vs. Montpellier Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Kylian Mbappé, Parisians in Ligue 1 Showdown (Sept. 25)
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Parisa Saint-Germain stars Neymar, left, and Kylian Mbappé.
PSG vs. Montpellier Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (-125 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN SPORTS | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Paris Saint-Germain will put its perfect Ligue 1 record on the line Saturday when it welcomes Montpellier to Parc des Princes for their showdown.
The Parisians have won all eight of their fixtures in the French top flight coming in, scoring a league-best 20 goals in the process. Metz just missed ending PSG’s streak on Wednesday, but suffered a stunning 2-1 home defeat.
Achraf Hakimi, who moved the Parisian side from Serie A outfit Inter Milan in the offseason, scored his second goal of the match in the 95th minute to secure the dramatic victory. The global juggernaut also bagged all three points minus Lionel Messi, who will miss out again with a bone bruise to his knee.
In contrast, La Paillade is unbeaten in five of its seven league games, but their record is sitting at the .500 mark. They’ve only earned two wins, but hope they can snap a two-match draw streak as big road underdogs. Montpellier has settled for frustrating back-to-back stalemates against Troyes (1-1) and, most recently, Bordeaux (3-3) following a 2-0 win against Saint-Étienne.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be on deck.
Insane Depth, Talent Helps Cushion Loss of Messi
Losing someone like Messi for an extended period of time would be crushing for almost every team in the world. However, when you have two other stars who are arguably inside the top 10 of the world’s best strikers on your roster, it’s much easier to deal with his absence.
Needless to say, that’s the case with PSG. The team has two other standouts in Neymar and Kylian Mbappé, who did just find powering the line before Messi walked onto the Parc des Princes soil. Mbappé leads all PSG scorers with four goals, while Neymar has a goal and assist in just 100 minutes of work. He has been easing his way back into the lineup after international duty with Brazil.
PSG confirm Lionel Messi has been ruled out of their game vs. Montpellier on Saturday pic.twitter.com/IbaxJUKYv9
— B/R Football (@brfootball) September 24, 2021
When it comes to the advanced metrics, the numbers are as gaudy as they come for a side that has only played seven league games up to this point. The Parisians have a whopping 12.1 expected goals and a decent 5.5 xGA, resulting in a +6.6 xGDiff and +0.94 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, it’s going to take a special team to stop this club from running the table in France this season. The Parisians simply have too much firepower, with the case in point being the fact Hakimi and Ander Herrera have three goals apiece. If they’re going to get that kind of production from guys outside of Neymar, Messi and Mbappé, the Ligue 1 title could be locked up by April.
Montpellier Hoping to Shake Average Play
If you’re looking for the definition of “mediocre” in the soccer dictionary, you’d likely find Montpellier listed as one of the examples. There’s no better way to describe the club after it’s disappointing 2-2-3 start (W-L-D) to the campaign.
You can understand the losses to Marseille and Lille, but it’s the draws against bottom feeders Troyes and Bordeaux that have many of us wondering if this outfit is any good. However, all is not lost as La Paillade sit smack dab in the middle for the table in 10th place on nine points.
Obviously, they’re extremely up against it facing PSG, but picking up a point against the French juggernaut would surely feel like a victory. Unfortunately for them, their track record against the Parisians is downright horrible. The last time they earned with at PSG was way back in May of 2010. So, it goes without saying the odds and history are stacked against them.
As for its statistical numbers, Montpellier sits on 9.0 xG and 9.7 xGA that result in a -0.7 xGDiff and 0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes. Needles to say, these are figures that perfectly reflect a mid-table side that needs to make a move or get left behind in the chase for next season’s European tournaments.
Betting Analysis & Picks
With next week’s all-important Champions League confrontation with Manchester City looming, I fully expect the Parisians to put together a professional performance that gets them all three points and do it without any unnecessary drama against a much lesser foe.
That said, I’m backing PSG at -1.75 on the spread line at -135 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s men won’t have issues getting in behind a leaky Montpellier defense that has conceded four goals in its last two affairs.
Neymar and Mbappé should have a field day, with the hope the duo can help the club storm out to a big first-half lead and give Pochettino a chance to rest some starters ahead of their UCL contest.
The Parisians have utterly dominated La Paillade of late, winning six of the last eight meetings between these combatants. Offensively, they’ve had no issues when it comes to lighting up the Montpellier net during that time frame either, scoring at least two goals in each meeting.
If you’re looking for a player prop, take a swing on Mauro Icardi to score anytime at -110 odds for some extra fun. He gives you better value than Mbappé (-150) and Neymar (-125), so I’d put a little on the Argentine to score.
Pick: PSG -1.75 (-135)