Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United Betting Preview: Updated MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction (Wednesday, Aug. 31)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Union standout Julián Carranza.
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+130 / -185)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS1 | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Philadelphia looks to move closer to securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference when it hosts an Atlanta United team fighting for their playoff lives in Wednesday's Major League Soccer action.
The Union have been in stellar form of late, winning an astounding and historic four of their matches by six goals this season. All of those wins have come in their last 10 games, including a 6-0 home victory over Colorado last time out.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has shown signs of a late surge, but have rarely put it all together. However, it at least avoided an embarrassing result in a 3-2 victory over last-place D.C. United last Sunday after twice going behind.
This is the first of two meetings in three weeks between these clubs, with a rematch set for Sept. 17 in Georgia.
The Union's recent blowout wins reveal a transition team that has become elite at playing with the lead against bad opponents.
And truly, that "bad" descriptor describes all the clubs that have conceded more than two goals in defeats to Philadelphia. D.C. United (two losses) is last in the East; Chicago second to last; Houston is last in the West; and, Colorado is in 11th place.
This isn't to assail Philadelphia's quality, only to note the distribution of seeming outlier outcomes is a little more predictable than at first glance.
I'm still a big Union backer. I'm just skeptical these six-goal blowouts are the new norm.
By The Numbers
- 9-0-5 — Philadelphia's home record (W-L-D) in the regular season.
- +19.7 — The Union's MLS-leading home xGDiff this campaign.
The question is whether Atlanta qualifies as a bad team. The standings would suggest so, with the Five Stripes entering the week still 11th in the Eastern Conference.
However, the track record suggests a more difficult opponent than you might guess. Manager Gonzalo Pineda's men haven't conceded more than three goals to an opponent all season.
They also haven't played an away game where more than four goals have been scored, which is notable given how high scoring oddsmakers believe this game could get.
Atlanta's +2.5 xGDiff is the fifth best in the Eastern Conference, though Colorado has similar numbers out west.
By The Numbers
- 100% — Percentage of Atlanta away games with four or fewer goals scored.
- 1-7-4 — Atlanta's away record (W-L-D) this season in MLS action.
Betting Analysis & Picks
With how good the Union are at home, there's probably some value on them and the draw, because an Atlanta win is really hard to conceive. However, there's also probably value on the under, given Atlanta's attacking quality, which could keep Philadelphia more honest than against other recent foes.
I'm combining those leans here to find two plays I like, which are both Same Game Parlay wagers. The first is Philadelphia on the moneyline paired with the total staying under 3.5 goals at +165 odds. And the second is backing the draw with the total not clearing 4.5 goals at +320 odds. Note: I'm guarding against Atlanta's specialty of a 2-2 draw with the latter.
If you put just less than 40% of your stake on the latter and a little more than 60% of it on the former, you can cobble together an equal payout of around -160 odds and an implied 61.5% probability.
Between Philadelphia home and Atlanta away games, one of these two parlays has hit 22 of 27 times, which is a stunning 81.5% connection rate.
The Picks: Same Game Parlay — Philadelphia ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+165) | Same Game Parlay — Draw & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+320)