Wednesday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Offenses Should Shine in Crystal Palace vs. Southampton Match
Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace standout Wilfried Zaha.
- Premier League clubs looking some consistency square off Wednesday when Crystal Palace hosts Southampton.
- The Eagles are snaped a three-match drough last time out in a victory over Everton, while the Saints have gone winless in their last five games.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing both teams to score.
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+115 / -135)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
With Southampton now winless in its last five Premier League matches, the clubs finds itself just five points ahead of the relegation zone heading into Wednesday’s road match at Crystal Palace in South London.
Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side suffered a 3-0 loss to Arsenal this past weekend, which was another game in which Southampton underperformed its underlying numbers given the quality of chances created and allowed. Poor goalkeeper play and an excellent team passing goal from the Gunners doomed the Saints.
For the year, they’ve been very unlucky though, with an even expected goal difference and -10 actual goal difference.
Southhampton now faces a Crystal Palace side that bounced back from three consecutive defeats to top Everton in a 3-1 victory this last Sunday at Selhurst Park. The Eagles have the fifth-best xGDiff in the English top flight, and like Southampton has been unlucky to be as low in the table as they’re in 12th place.
Youthful Crystal Palace Turning Things Around
Crystal Palace has successfully turned over its squad and gotten much younger, hired a manager who has impressed in his tenure and the performances are following for the club.
The Eagles might sit just 12th in the standings, but every underlying metric suggests they’re actually are a top-half team. This is less than two years after Palace had one of the oldest squads in the league and the worst attacking output. Their improvements have actually started on defense, though.
Crystal Palace has allowed the second-fewest big scoring chances, fourth-fewest xGA per 90 minutes and sixth-fewest box entries. I’m skeptical they can continue to have excellent numbers throughout the entire season, but they’re clearly an above-average defense. There’s probably some regression coming in performances that knock them down from the elite ranks, but not that much.
The Palace attack hasn’t been great away on the road this year. However, at home the Eagles are averaging 1.5 xG/90 minutes. Only the big three of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City have a better xG difference on home soil.
Palace should be comfortable playing an up-tempo style with Southampton and finding some space in behind the press to exploit the Saints’ defense.
Injuries Causing Concern for Southampton
Southampton is in a bit of an injury crisis in the goal and it hurt them considerably against Arsenal. Injuries to both Frasier Forster and Alex McCarthy forced them to sign 40-year-old Willy Caballero and he struggled with both shot-stopping and cross claiming this past weekend.
Arsenal attempted seven crosses and Caballero stopped none of them. His lack of judgement and reaction on crosses into the penalty area directly led to an Arsenal goal and nearly a second that was ruled out for offside. He also could have saved the second goal, which was a header that went just past him at the near post. McCarthy and Forster appear out again for this match and Caballero doesn’t appear to be a EPL caliber goalkeeper anymore or even close to that.
The Saints’ attack doesn’t look like a great unit when you look at the talent and the goal production, but the underlying numbers are quite encouraging going forward. Southampton ranks ninth in box entries, fifth in big scoring chances created and eighth in shots per 90 minutes.
The result of that is the Saints actually have the seventh-best attack by non-penalty xG per 90 minutes. Despite this, only three teams have a worse goals-per-90-minute record. That doesn’t align at all and the more stable indicators suggest Southampton has more goals coming.
The Saints will pressure the ball a lot and leave them vulnerable to space in behind if they get beaten, and few teams have more dangerous players in space than Palace with Wilfried Zaha, Conor Gallagher and Odsonne Édouard.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The market has posted yet another Crystal Palace total at 2.25 against a solid defense and the number is a bit deflated by Southampton’s poor goal return in the league this season. Just because the Saints haven’t been scoring lots of goals doesn’t mean they have a below average attack.
Given Southampton have some attacking regression coming to boost their goal totals, but also have a defense prone to allowing big scoring chances and a goalkeeper who is out of his depth, I’d expect this game to feature some chances and goals.
The Both Teams To Score line should be closer to -135 odds, according to my projections. And while Crystal Palace has an elite home defense, that’s probably not going to be sustained for long given their possession numbers.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-120 or better)
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