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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Manchester United vs. Arsenal (Sunday, Nov. 1)

Credit:

Anthony Devlin/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Marcus Rashford scores a goal against RB Leipzig goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi.

  • Manchester United hosts Arsenal in Sunday's highly anticipated showdown at Old Trafford.
  • The Red Devils are coming off a 5-0 rout of RB Leipzig in the Champions League action.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top picks in one of most England's storied rivalries.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal Odds

Manchester United Odds +102 [BET NOW]
Arsenal Odds +260 [BET NOW]
Draw +265 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-132/+107) [BET NOW]
Time 11:30 a.m. ET
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Things will likely be lit at Old Trafford on Sunday when Manchester United hosts Arsenal in an exciting Premier League showdown.

Neither club has gotten off to the grandest of starts in England’s top flight, with the Red Devils (2-1-2) in 15th place on seven points and the Gunners only slightly better (3-0-3, nine points) in 12th place.

Arsenal is looking to snap a brutal stretch of results at the Theatre of Dreams, where it hasn’t won a match going back to September 2006. As for Manchester United, the club hopes to build on its midweek 5-0 rout of RB Leipzig in Champions League play.

That said, let’s take a look at these sides and see what’s on deck.

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Manchester United

The Red Devils could not have asked for a better performance heading into this match than what they put together in the blowout of RB Leipzig. They looked like a European power against one of last season’s Champions League semifinalists, with Marcus Rashford leading the line in the win.

Manchester United have looked great since its 6-1 blowout defeat against Tottenham Hotspur, picking up a 4-1 win against Newcastle United before last weekend’s scoreless draw with Chelsea.

The Red Devils define the term “middle of the pack” when it comes to advanced metrics, sitting on a mediocre 6.5 expected goals (xG) and dismal 8.5 expected goals against (xGA) this season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Those statistics translate into a -2.0 expected goal difference (xGDiff) and -0.39 xGDiff/90 minutes, generating some of the worst numbers among the 20 clubs in the league.

Arsenal

There are many questions surrounding the Gunners’ rollercoaster start to the league campaign. Arsenal has lost three of its last four league tilts, including back-to-back 1-0 defeats to Manchester City and Leicester City.

The Gunners will have to get things sorted out quickly if they’re going to have any success against a very in-form Manchester United side.

When comparing its statistical data, Arsenal is not much better than its foe in any category. The Gunners boast 6.5 expected goals and a subpar 7.9 expected goals, resulting in a -1.4 xGDiff and -0.22 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Bottom line, Manchester United and Arsenal have been pretty much a wash this season when breaking down the advanced metrics.

Betting Analysis

On paper, Manchester United is the team to beat. The Red Devils, unbeaten in 17 of their last 19 home league matches, are rolling along at the moment. That rout of RB Leipzig had to give the club a massive boost of confidence, which should carry over in this match.

However, Manchester United’s 3-1 home loss to Crystal Palace in its season opener still sits in mind, with the belief that kind of performance could reappear at any point.

That said, I am going to back the total going over the number and both teams to score as my top plays. Manchester United and five of its last six opponents have both scored in league tilts at Old Trafford, which is a trend I see continuing here.

Add in the fact eight of these clubs last 10 combined matches have finished with at least three goals, and I like my chances of a pretty open affair.

If you’re looking for a sneaky prop play, sprinkle a little on a penalty to be awarded during the match at ripe number. Referee Mike Dean, who will be the man in the middle, gave out penalties the last two times these clubs met.

Most recently, Dean awarded a penalty from the spot in the Liverpool-Sheffield United match during last weekend’s fixtures.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-132) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-159)

[Bet the Manchester United-Arsenal match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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