Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview (Dec. 1)

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview (Dec. 1) article feature image
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John Berry/Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Sterling

  • Manchester City are favored against Aston Villa on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Villa have won two straight under Steven Gerrard, although the Cityzens will be their toughest test yet.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the match and makes his betting pick below.

Aston Villa vs. Man City Odds

Aston Villa Odds +750
Man City Odds -270
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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The Premier League is about to learn just how far Steven Gerrard can immediately lift Aston Villa.

Gerrard has already done an outstanding job in amassing all six points in his first two games at the helm, but he’ll be given one of the stiffest tests the league has to offer when Pep Guardiola’s Man City rolls into town.

City comes into the match having won five matches in a row, and it will be expecting to take the points from the match.

Will Man City be able to continue its dominant run, or will Liverpool legend Gerrard be able to hand his former club another favor, this time as a manager.

Aston Villa Enjoying New Manager Bump

The impact of a new manager is widely debated, but there’s no question that the phenomenon of a “new manager bump” is real. Aston Villa has garnered the best version of the new manager bump with Gerrard, winning two games since appointing the ex-Rangers manager after losing five in a row.

Gerrard has implemented a sound defensive structure that has been evident in both of the team’s performances thus far. Villa has conceded just one goal since his arrival, and that came in the 95th minute of the Lions’ win against Crystal Palace.

In each of Villa’s two games with Gerrard, it has conceded just 1.54 in combined xGA. The Lions have been lucky in the sense that they’ve also generated just 1.52 xG in that same span, but with the inspiration that Gerrard has provided in addition to a bit of luck, Villa has escaped touching distance of the relegation zone.

If the Lions can escape on Wednesday with a result, the environment surrounding the team will be at a new level.

Man City Cruising Along

Whenever I find myself writing about a City game, I find myself being redundant with this concept, but it’s important to emphasize.

Man City is finding routine result after routine result across competitions, and it’s allowing the team to record stress-free victories in succession. City is certainly the deepest team in the Premier League having spent enormous amounts of money every summer (£818 million spent over the past five years per Transfer League).

Because of that, the Cityzens are well-equipped to handle the upcoming fixture congestion, including this type of mid-week game. For many teams, there may be concerns about fitness and/or mental lapses, but that’s far easier to handle with the type of squad that City has.

This is illustrated by City’s ability to handle the loss of Kevin De Bruyne over the past couple of games due to COVID with ease. It seems that City hasn’t missed a stride without its key midfielder.

We’ll see if that trend continues on Wednesday against a stubborn team.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite the recent success that Villa has enjoyed, it’s hard for me to back the Lions against a machine that is functioning as well as City is.

There is simply no team in the Premier League that has the depth and ability to rotate with quality better than City, so stringing together quality results should be expected from Guardiola’s squad as much as any team in the world.

I don’t think much value is gained in opting for a -1.5 line at +100, so instead offer yourself a bit of insurance in the Asian handicap of -1.25, and expect City to generate another crucial result in the long title race.

Pick: Man City -1.25 (-120)

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