Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Arsenal vs Man City

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Dabbundo: No team needs the international break more than Manchester United right now. The Red Devils lost consecutive matches at home to Crystal Palace and Galatasaray in the Premier League and Champions League. Erik ten Hag’s seat is getting warmer as the results continue to crater and the injury situation doesn’t look much more encouraging for this match.

United will once again be playing a makeshift backline due to injuries across the board. Ten Hag has turned the dial to be more attacking and press higher up the pitch this season, but the general decline and aging from Casemiro has left the backup defenders even more exposed in transition. United have had major problems with teams playing it long against them and starting attacks from there. They’ve also badly struggled to contain late third man runs into the penalty area.

Brentford’s textbook attacking set up is to send long balls to Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa and let them do most of the work in creating chances. The Bees will occasionally send an extra runner into the penalty area too and that’s been extremely effective for teams scoring goals against Manchester United.

I’d bet Brentford +0.5 at +110 or better and sprinkle the ML at +350 or better.

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+115 via bet365) 

Saturday, Oct. 7

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: The Everton offense is absolutely cooking under Sean Dyche right now. They are playing his style of transitional vertical football, creating four big scoring chances against Luton Town but only scoring one of them.

The way Everton are setting up in their 4-4-1-1 with Abdoulaye Doucouré playing as a box invading midfielder is working so well because in pressing and out of possession it allows Everton to have a three-man midfield. Teams can’t build through the middle with ease against them, as the middle is clogged up.

Bournemouth have been terrible defensively. Iroala’s press has not been effective whatsoever. They are seventh in PPDA and have forced the eighth-most high turnovers, but teams are constantly playing through the first line of the press and then have acres of space to get at the Bournemouth backline. That’s probably why they are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate and 18th in xThreat allowed.

I have 3.4 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-120 via Caesars)

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Saturday, Oct. 7

12:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Crystal Palace Odds	+120
Nottingham Forest Odds	+250
Draw	+210
Over / Under	2.5  +130 / -167

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Who is actually going to score for Crystal Palace in this match? Currently, Eze, Edouard and Olise are going to miss this match, which means Palace is going to have to turn to Mateta, Jeffrey Schlupp and Jordan Ayew to break down a compact low block? Edouard and Eze have combined for 4.9 of their 8.1 xG, 47 of their 90 shots and 64 of their 150 touches in the penalty area.

Nottingham Forest’s 3-5-2 low block has actually been really effective this season. They have conceded just three big scoring chances, which is second-best in the Premier League. They are first in final third to box entry conversion rate, showing how effective they’ve been at keeping teams out of their penalty area. They aren’t going to press high and give Crystal Palace transitional opportunities. Even if they do, Palace don't have any of their personnel available to threaten them.

Forest are basically only good in their transitional moments, but in their last four matches they’ve failed to create over 1 xG and three of those matches came against good transition defenses in Chelsea, Manchester City and Brentford.

Crystal Palace’s match against Fulham is a good example of what I believe this match will look like. A lot of stale possession, no high quality chances and two offenses really struggling to break down sturdy defenses.

I have BTTS – no projected at -165, so I like the value on the current line of -120.

Pick:Both Teams to Score – No (-120 via DraftKings) 

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Sunday, Oct. 8

11:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Most of the matchups between Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola have been rather low event. There were only 15 total shot attempts in the Community Shield – most low quality – and the game remained 0-0 for the first 77 minutes. When these two sides met in the FA Cup last spring, City played a rotated side and there were just seven shots in the first 70 minutes.

Arteta’s Arsenal went to Manchester in the spring and overcommitted to pressing the Cityzens. Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland’s combinations in transition led to a handful of big scoring chances for the title holders. Remember, though, that was City with De Bruyne and Arsenal without William Saliba. The Gunners' first choice defense is fully healthy and they’ve been one of the top defenses in Europe thus far this year.

The problem for the Gunners is the attacking output’s lack of consistency. Gabriel Martinelli is out injured for this match and I’d be surprised if Bukayo Saka played after he left Tuesday’s match against Lens with a hamstring problem. Arteta could opt to be more conservative in midfield now too by playing both Declan Rice and the now fit ball-stopper Thomas Partey.

This could be especially effective given that Manchester City will not have Rodri, who is suspended. Guardiola’s squad got exposed in defensive transition without him against Wolves in a shock 2-1 defeat, and his natural response to that is to become even more conservative in possession.

Arteta is sure to not overcommit this time in pressing City, but I still am down on Arsenal’s attacking quality relative to the market.

Pick:Under 2.5 (+100 via BetRivers)