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Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Arsenal vs. Burnley EPL Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Arsenal vs. Burnley EPL Betting Preview article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Alexandre Lacazette

  • Arsenal hosts struggling Burnley in Sunday’s Premier League match.
  • The Gunners, who are huge -300 moneyline favorites, would love secure all three points in this contest.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the game below and explains why he’s expecting Arsenal to blank its lowly opponent.

Arsenal vs. Burnley Odds

Arsenal Odds -300
Burnley Odds +1000
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Arsenal returns to Premier League action on Sunday, looking to continue their push for European qualification next season with a positive result against Burnley at Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners have been on great form recently, picking up wins in four of their last five in the league to enter the game in seventh in the table on 35 points.

Meanwhile, the Clarets have dropped further into the relegation zone and have not secured a victory since the 3-1 win against Brentford on October 30.

Arsenal have only one loss in the last 18 league games against Burnley, and this dominance should continue in this meeting as well.

Arsenal Chasing Coveted European Berth

While manager Mikel Arteta will be disappointed with the two cup exits recently, it will give his side the opportunity to solely focus on its league form, with qualifying for Europe the top priority for next season.

Arsenal have been excellent over the last five games, posting a +6.5 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, and a +12 goal difference over that span.

On the season, the Gunners have also been a strong team at home, with only Manchester City and Liverpool averaging more points in home games this season.

Key midfielder Granit Xhaka will be suspended for this fixture due to his red card in the Carabao Cup semifinal, but Arsenal should have most of its squad back from injury.

Burnley Staring Down Relegation

The big question for Burnley right now is who is going to score the goals needed to avoid relegation from the English top-flight.

Leading scorer Maxwel Cornet (six goals) is currently representing the Ivory Coast in the Africa Cup of Nations, and Chris Wood (three goals) was just sold to relegation rival Newcastle.

This was already a Clarets side that ranked in the bottom three in the EPL in multiple attacking categories, including goals scored (15), xG per 90 minutes (0.99) and shots per match (10.65).

To make matters worse, Burnley have earned the lowest amount of points away from home in the league this season, picking up just four draws in 10 away games.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As you would expect, Arsenal come into the game as a heavy -300 favorite on the moneyline, with the total posted at 2.5 goals. I only see one team winning this match, but you have to find a different way to play the Gunners due to the big price tag.

My best bet for the game is Arsenal to Win to Nil at -110.

I wrote about the issues Burnley have finding the back of the net this season, but the recent form of manager Sean Dyche’s team isn’t great either.

Over the last five league games, the Clarets are averaging just 0.68 expected goals per game and have only scored twice.

You also have to look at their poor form away from home, where they average 0.81 xG per match.

As for Arsenal, Arteta’s team has been dominating games recently, holding opponents to just 0.88 expected goals in the last five EPL matches. The Gunners have also picked up clean sheets in four of their last five home games in the league.

The same bet would have cashed in the first meeting between the two teams back in September, and because of the forms of both sides heading into this game, I’m expecting it to be a winning bet once again.

Pick: Arsenal — Win to Nil (-110)

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