Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including AC Milan vs. Juventus (Jan. 22-23)

It was another profitable weekend for our trio of Serie A best bets, as we emerged from last weekend's slate with a 2-1 record.

Juventus and Roma cashed our first-half moneyline plays, but Inter Milan never came close to clearing our team total bet. That leaves this column with a 6-2-2 record through three weekends of picks as we turn our attention to the last set of games before the latest international break.

Without further delay, here are my best bets across the whole board, including one for AC Milan vs. Juventus. As always, odds are reflective at time of writing.

Serie A Best Bets

Lazio vs. Atalanta

Goals have historically come easily in this head-to-head fixture and I expect that trend will continue in this latest clash. 

Although Lazio has over-performed its home expected goals total by nearly nine goals, I’m encouraged by its individual home performances. Even if you suspect some negative regression is coming, Lazio has still managed at least one xG goal in all but two home fixtures this season.

Additionally, manager Maurizio Sarri’s side has a good history against Atalanta. In their last five meetings, I Biancocelesti have generated at least two xG in three games and at least one xG in four outings.

That said, the Lazio defense simply has not been up to snuff. It sits 11th in xGA per 90 minutes and has only kept three clean sheetsn, two of which were against Salernitana — the worst team in the league.

As for Atalanta, its attack has been on an absolute tear as of late. In its last six fixtures, the Nerazzurri have generated 16 goals on 13.2 xG and have never produced fewer than 1.1 xG in that span. Plus, Atalanta has ripped apart the league’s worst defenses, averaging two xG per game through 12 matches against the 10 worst xGA/90 sides.

And for how positively Lazio has performed against Atalanta, manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s squad has experienced equal success against its foe. Only twice in the last nine meetings have Lazio held Atalanta under 1.0 xG, while Atalanta has simultaneously scored at least once in nine consecutive matches.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-110)

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Torino vs. Sassuolo

Much like Lazio vs. Atalanta, I expect bettors will see goals in this fixture. 

We’ll begin with visiting Sassuolo, whose main objective this season appears to be having its above-average attack carry its below-average defense. Sassuolo has allowed the seventh-most expected goals in Serie A, but also sits 7th in total xG this season.

Additionally, its road record is even more concerning, as Sassuolo has allowed the fourth-most xG while still maintaining its overall position in the xG standings. And for whatever reason, no side has proved capable of keeping manager Alessio Dionisi’s squad scoreless when it’s playing away from home. 

In fact, its lowest road xG total away from home is 0.7. this season While negative regression could well come, Sassuolo has only outperformed its xG total by one or more goals twice on the road.

That said, Torino has also proven reliable on the offensive end on home turf. Only Juventus has kept them scoreless at home this season and Il Toro have never posted fewer than 0.8 xG at the Stadio Olimpico. 

Lastly, Torino has had the number of the Sassuolo defense for a bit now. In their last three meetings, Torino has never produced fewer than 2.0 xG and hasn’t been held goalless in any of its last nine games with this opponent. 

Five of the last six games — including three in a row — have seen these sides combine for at least 2.5 xG, so I’m happy to take a total with plus money and bet on neither defense showing up.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+110)

AC Milan vs. Juventus

It’s the marquee Serie A match of the weekend and the truth is I see very little separating these sides. 

Juventus has the edge in terms of recent form — unbeaten in its last eight league fixtures — but Milan has earned a result against its opponent in three of the last four games. Meanwhile, Milan arrives at this fixture in great offensive form having produced no fewer than 2.6 xG in its last three matches. 

I’m not sure how much weight to put on the Juventus unbeaten run, as six of those eight results have come against sides sitting 13th, 14th and 17th-20th in the current table. Plus, Milan has won all but two home tilts on xG this season. 

For all those reasons, I’m choosing to stay away from the sides and looking elsewhere, specifically the prop market. 

My best bet is for Both Teams to Score in this match. This wager has cashed in three of the last four games, but the pre-game price of -140 odds is too high for me. Therefore, my strategy is to see if I can’t get a better number live.

Throw out Álvaro Morata's fourth-minute tally at Allianz Stadium earlier this season and bettors will find these sides have generally taken their time in getting on the scoreboard. In the four previous meetings before September’s 1-1 draw, the earliest goal was scored in the 18th minute.

Set that goal aside and the next earliest goal has come on 41 minutes. For that reason, I’ll wait and see if I can’t get Both Teams To Score at -120 or better.

Pick: Live Play — Both Teams to Score (-120 or better)