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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Everton Surprise Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United in EPL Clash?

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Everton Surprise Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United in EPL Clash? article feature image
Credit:

Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Richarlison.

  • Everton welcomes Manchester United to Goodison Park for Saturday's Premier League match.
  • The Toffees, who are in dire straits and hoping to fight off relegation, need to pick up points to avoid even more trouble.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the contest below and details why he thinks Everton gets a positive result.

Everton vs. Man United Odds

Everton Odds +310
Man United Odds -125
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -115)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Everton and Manchester United will view Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff as a must-win match despite their disparate Premier League positions.

The Toffees’ margin for relegation safety over Burnley is a solitary point after the Clarets pulled off a 3-2, come-from-behind victory on Wednesday at Turf Moor. And Everton face four top-seven foes in their final nine matches, while Burnley face only one of them.

United is one of those clubs, which currently sits in seventh place and is trying to remain in the chase for the four UEFA Champions League places. The Red Devils, who crashed out of this year’s UCL in the Round of 16 last month, begin the weekend three points back of fourth place after last week’s 1-1 home draw with Leicester City.

Everton and United drew 1-1 at Old Trafford last fall, which is one of only four away games to date where the Toffees earned points.

Everton Entrenched in Relegation Scrap

The blue half of Merseyside has experienced some bad fortune this season, but their most recent defeat came despite receiving some rare good luck.

Everton attacked well at times against Burnley, but took the lead only through two first-half penalties that flattered the visitor.

The Clarets’ tying and winning goals came somewhat against the run of play, with the latter in the 86th minute owing to a combination of defensive errors. The result was a fifth consecutive EPL away defeat under Lampard in as many opportunities to go along with another in the FA Cup.

A return home could give Everton a boost, but that might be muted by the fewer than 72 hours of recovery time. Richarlison, Everton’s only consistent attacking performer and the scorer of both penalties against Burnley, will likely be asked to play 90 minutes for a third time in seven days.

There are potential reinforcements elsewhere on the pitch, with midfielder Allan and defender Michael Keane returning from suspension.

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Man United Chasing Champions League Berth

While Erik ten Hag has emerged as the next likely full-time manager at United, it’s up to Ralph Rangnick to secure the Devils’ European future in his remaining tenure as interim boss.

The challenge is not only the three-point gap, but also the number of teams in between. United must pass West Ham United, Arsenal and Tottenham if it’s going to secure the fourth spot.

While Tottenham currently holds fourth, Arsenal might be the favorite to grab it with two fewer games played than Spurs and one fewer than United.

Cristiano Ronaldo should be set to return for the Red Devils at Goodison Park after he missed last Saturday’s draw at Old Trafford to illness.

Now 37 years old, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner is considerably diminished from his prime, but still United’s best attacker with 12 goals and three assists.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

Everton’s most obvious splits are in their home and away form. However, under Lampard, the Toffees also played much worse against teams that play a true high line of zonal confrontation with a focus on transition; not possession.

Based on its xG totals, Everton’s worst performances under Lampard are two games against Newcastle United and a trip journey to Southampton. Yes, the Toffees won the latter match against Newcastle despite a substantial xG home differential.

Rangnick is one of the original high-pressing tacticians. However, he has had to modify his approach at United to protect Ronaldo, his side’s top scorer and most dangerous attacker who can’t cover the ground he once could.

This is a long-winded way of saying you can trust xG numbers suggesting this three-way line should be closer to even. Everton’s home xG difference and United’s away xG difference are basically nil.

There’s structural reasons the Red Devils have over-performed and the Toffees have underperformed those totals, but to install the visitors as better than even-money favorites is a stretch.

I’d be more bullish on the Everton moneyline without such a short turnaround. Instead, the potential for fatigued-end product — even in a good performance — has me playing a Double Chance wager on Everton or the draw at +100 odds and a 50% implied probability.

This is still an Everton side that has earned points at home against Arsenal and Spurs, and would’ve taken a point from Manchester City without a refereeing error that overlooked a clear penalty

And it’s still a Manchester United side that has dropped points in more than half of its away matches.

Pick: Double Chance — Everton or Draw (+100)

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