Saturday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Brighton vs. Newcastle Betting Preview
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Danny Welbeck and his teammates celebrate a goal against Manchester United.
Brighton vs. Newcastle Odds
| Brighton Odds | +135 |
| Newcastle Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Standout Premier League squads from opening week take the pitch when Newcastle United travels to Brighton & Hove Albion for Saturday's clash.
The Magpies earned a comfortable 2-0 win over the newly promoted Nottingham Forest, while the Seagulls delivered the upset of the week via their 2-1 victory against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
So, where does the value lie in this matchup? Let's dive into it.
Brighton & Hove Albion
No one impressed more against its expectations than Brighton, which used a unique formation to surprise United and executed it to perfection.
Manager Graham Potter initiated a 3-2-3-2 lineup and the result was a massively deserved road win on the back of 1.73 expected goals and 1.42 xGA during the contest.
Brighton was a quality side in the 2021-22 campaign. It posted the seventh-best xG total and the sixth-best xGA total in the league. That said, the Seagulls will be looking to build on that and their opening win will serve them well.
By The Numbers
- 15/4 — Brighton produced 15 shots and four shots on target against United. The club only had two fewer shots overall and one fewer shot on target than its opponent, all while amassing more xG in the meeting.
- 20 — No player the Seagulls added in the transfer window was over 20 years old, including Julio Enciso and Simon Adingra. The club is young and looking to get even younger, reflecting that in its playing style.
Newcastle United
Expectations have risen for the Magpies dating back to the Saudi-backed takeover that the club went through in the middle of last season.
When that occurred, Newcastle was in the relegation zone and struggling for points. It was able to avoid a difficult relegation battle altogether and enter the new season comfortably, spending more than 70 million dollars on transfers.
Newcastle excelled in its opening fixture with Nottingham Forest, dominating on all fronts. It generated 1.86 xG and conceded just 0.24 xGA in a 2-0 win. Those are the type of performances the club will be looking for against bottom-half clubs.
By The Numbers
- 1.64 — Newcastle's 1.64 xGDiff was the second best of any Premier League squad last week. The only team with a higher number was Manchester City.
- 62 — The Magpies held this percentage of possession against Nottingham Forest, which was its highest number since registering that same percentage against Brentford in February of last season's campaign.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There isn't much that separates these squads on paper, so that means the three-way line pricing here is rather efficient.
It's easy to see this fixture going in any direction, but the total might be more approachable. Both squads combined for more than 2.5 xG/game in the prior campaign, while combining for north of 3 xGA/game.
We don't have a ton to go off of this season, but Newcastle showed an aggressive attacking mindset in its opening game and Brighton was equally impressive on the attack.
In terms of finding the best value on the board, I'll opt with the over at plus-money as my top selection.
The Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)
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