Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Chelsea vs. Tottenham EPL Betting Preview
Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
- Chelsea looks to maintain its dominance against Tottenham in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
- The Blues, who are solid -140 moneyline favorites, have seen their title hopes fade away of late.
- Brett Pund breaks down the latest London derby and details why he’s backing Spurs.
Chelsea vs. Spurs Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In the third meeting between the two teams this month, Chelsea hosts Tottenham on Sunday in a very important London derby in Premier League action.
The Blues picked up wins in both legs of their Carabao Cup semifinal tie against the visitors, entering the weekend in third in the EPL with 44 points.
Spurs have been in great form since the change at manager, pushing up the table to sixth and just two points out of fourth place.
Chelsea has won five of the last six against Tottenham in the league, but with the current forms of both sides, I think this could be a rare spot for Spurs to get a positive result at Stamford Bridge.
Title Hopes Fading Away for Chelsea
Following the recent draw with Brighton and loss to Manchester City, Chelsea’s EPL title hopes are pretty much over this season. However, the Blues can still pick up a trophy in cup competitions.
Manager Thomas Tuchel’s team is on its lowest form of the campaign so far, picking up just one win in the last five in the league.
Over that span, Chelsea has posted a +2.3 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, which is a deceiving number on the surface.
If you remove the victory over Aston Villa, the xG difference falls to just +0.1 over that same stretch.
Spurs Rolling With Conte Leading Way
Since Antonio Conte became manager, Tottenham has been a completely different team from the one earlier in the season.
Spurs are unbeaten in the EPL in his nine games in charge, picking up six wins and three draws. The advanced metrics have also been strong during this stretch.
In those nine matches, Tottenham has averaged 2.322 expected goals per game and posted a +13.5 xG difference. Spurs have won the expected goals battle in all nine fixtures as well.
After the thrilling midweek comeback against Leicester City, Conte’s men will be fired up to keep the run going.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Chelsea is listed as the home favorite at -145 on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.
Although the Blues did win both of the cup games and own the recent history of the fixture, I can’t back them at this price against an in-form Spurs team.
My best bet is to take Tottenham at +1 on the three-way handicap at +110. If your sportsbook offers a two-way handicap of +0.75 at a similar price, I like that play as well for this match.
I laid out all of the numbers behind the Spurs’ resurgence under Conte, but you also have to wonder how much Chelsea really cares about this game.
The Blues are not going to catch Man City for the title, and they are comfortably in third place for Champions League qualification next season.
However, this game should mean a lot for Spurs, who can move into the final UCL qualifying spot with a victory and get some much-needed revenge after Chelsea knocked them out of the Carabao Cup.
A manager as good and experienced as Conte has to have an answer to at least pick up a draw, and with star striker Harry Kane starting to find his form, I think this is a great spot to back Spurs in the week’s biggest match.
Pick: Three-Way Handicap — Tottenham +1 (+110)