Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Leicester City vs. Brighton EPL Betting Preview
Phil Noble – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion goalkeeper Robert Sánchez.
- Brighton hosts Leicester City in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
- The Seagulls have been great for their backers, seemingly always on the right side of the spread as underdogs.
- Anthony Dabbundo takes a deep look at this confrontation and explains why he’s backing Brighton to get a result.
Leicester City vs. Brighton Odds
|Leicester City Odds||+160|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Leicester City was about two minutes from consecutive victories against Liverpool and Tottenham in the league and vaulting themselves back into the conversation for European places come season’s end.
Then Steven Bergwijn scored two goals in the final minutes on Wednesday and Spurs pulled off the latest comeback victory in the history of the Premier League. Tottenham won 3-2 and stunned the King Power Stadium.
It’s hard to imagine how the Foxes bounce back from that on short rest against a Brighton side that once again outplayed Chelsea for large stretches of the match the day prior. The Seagulls come into this match much healthier, they’re in better form and for some reason, are priced as an underdog here despite some very concerning underlying metrics from the Foxes.
The latest collapse from the Foxes is the talk of the league right now, but even more concerning is the 4.5 expected goals allowed to Spurs, who didn’t have their second best attacker in Heung-min Son.
While some would expect a reaction from Leicester following embarrassment, the price isn’t there to back the Foxes and I’m back on the Seagulls as underdogs here.
Leicester City Looks to Recover From Shock Loss
Patson Daka performed well in his start against Spurs in the midweek match, but the Foxes really struggled to grab control of the match despite a pretty pedestrian Tottenham backline that was without two of its top center backs.
Daka managed just two total shots, two big scoring chances and converted one. His goal came from a poor clearance attempt from Sergio Reguilon in the Spurs’ penalty area and Leicester’s second goal came from a deflection off Japhet Tanganga.
Almost all the expected goals for Leicester City came from big scoring chances against Tottenham, and now they’re facing a defense that’s second best in the entire league at preventing big scoring chances. Needless to say, Brighton doesn’t allow high-quality chances.
The defense will be bolstered by the return of Daniel Amartey from the Africa Cup of Nations, but that doesn’t change how short-handed the squad is all together. Kelechi Iheanacho, Jamie Vardy, Willfried Ndidi, Jonny Evans, Wesley Fofana and Timothy Castagne remain out for this match. That’s six key starters from the best Starting XI that Leicester ran out last season.
Throw in an out-of-form James Maddison in the midfield, two struggling center backs in Caglar Söyüncü and Jannik Vestergaard, and the result is the defensive performance that let Spurs post more than four xG in the game. It also allowed Liverpool more attacking touches in the opposition penalty area of any team in any EPL match this season in late December.
The Foxes will always be a dangerous counterattacking unit and can break with the best in the league, but Brighton isn’t a side you want to be dependent on the counter against. The Seagulls’ possession structure is difficult to exploit with numbers running into space.
Brighton Backers Loving Profitable Underdog
Another day, another cover as an underdog, as Adam Webster scored his first goal of the EPL season and Brighton tied Chelsea in a 1-1 draw at home. The Seagulls conceded an early goal from outside the box after goalkeeper Robert Sanchez saw Hakim Ziyech’s shot late, but it was another impressive ball-control performance.
Again, Brighton lacked the final decisive attacking thrust to create the high-quality scoring chances and really break open the Chelsea defense. However, a creative set piece was enough as an underdog when they didn’t need to get margin. And yet again, the Seagulls are road underdogs.
Leicester City still ranks in the bottom four in both crosses allowed and box entries allowed into their own penalty area, which means Brighton (ninth in box entries and sixth in crosses) should dominate the possession and hold its foe to the occasional counterattack for its goals and chances.
The Seagulls rank inside the top half in shots in the league despite a below-average attack. And the worst aspect of the Foxes’ defense is they allow the second-most shots per 90 minutes in the league.
Manager Graham Potter could exploit Leicester’s midfield, but outnumbering them as he did against Chelsea and that midfield could be bolstered by the return of Adam Lallana. Even without Yves Bissouma and Enock Mwepu, Brighton has depth in numbers in that area of the pitch.
Leicester also had major issues in its back three at controlling Spurs’ width and few players are more electric out wide in the entire league than Tariq Lamptey, the talented Brighton wingback.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Leicester City has improved on set pieces in the last couple of matches, but that’s another area where the club has been the league’s worst this year. Brighton has had above-average success off corners and scored on a set piece in the Seagulls 2-1 victory against Leicester City earlier this season.
The Seagulls should have most of the possession and game control, with the Foxes constantly looking to hit on the break and generate big scoring chances and nick the game. Leicester City is without Vardy, though, has major form and injury issues at center back, plus it hasn’t been able to stop opponents from easy access into the penalty area.
On the balance of the matchup and despite its issues in and around the penalty area, Brighton is the more trustworthy side. It’s hard to see Leicester finding consistent counterattacking success against a defense as solid as this group.
And that’s why I’m happy to back the Seagulls, even if the spot favors the Foxes to bounce back at King Power Stadium.
I make Brighton at -115 odds on the Draw No Bet line on the road and would play anything at Pick’em or better for my top selection.
Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (-110 or better)
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