Watford vs. Brighton Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Find Value in First-Half Total (Feb. 12)
David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion goalkeeperRobert Sánchez.
- Watford welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Vicarage Road for Saturday's Premier League match.
- The Hornets are smack in the middle of the relegation fight and must get a result as +250 ML underdogs against the Seagulls.
- Brett Pund breaks down the match below and delivers a value play tied to the first-half total.
Watford vs. Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -155)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Watford welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Vicarage Road on Saturday with another opportunity to climb out of the Premier League relegation zone.
The Hornets have one point through two games under new manager Roy Hodgson following the draw at Burnley and loss at West Ham United.
For the visitors, the Seagulls are currently riding a six-game unbeaten streak coming into this contest, which has pushed them to ninth in the league table.
This isn’t a game that I’m expecting a lot of fireworks or scoring chances. However, there is an angle that I believe has value from a betting perspective.
Watford Getting Defensive Under Hodgson
We have a very small sample size of how Watford will play under new manager Roy Hodgson, but there's a theme starting to show.
The Hornets have been a lot more compact defensively in his two games in charge, allowing just 0.75 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. If this continues, it would be a huge improvement from the 1.91 xGA average in the 20 games before Hodgson was hired.
This game should also see the return of attacker Ismaila Sarr from the Africa Cup of Nations. The standout has five league goals for Watford this season.
Brighton Defines Consistency for Potter
While the way his team plays will never be the most entertaining in the league, manager Graham Potter’s team continues to consistently perform at a level that safely keeps the club in the English top flight.
Brighton has been one of the top defensive sides in the EPL, ranking in the top five in xGA per match (1.22), opponents’ shots per 90 minutes (12.18) and big scoring chances surrendered (16) this season.
When you can defend this well, it can mask some of the low attacking metrics from the Seagulls, who at times have had struggles finding the back of the net.
French striker Neal Maupay leads the team with seven goals to go along with two assists, which includes a goal in the first meeting between the teams.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Brighton comes into the match as the +110 moneyline favorite to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.
The odds for picking the winner and on the total are both right where they should be. However, there is still value to back a low-scoring match that I’m expecting in this contest.
That said, my best bet is to play the total staying under 0.5 goals in the first half at at +155 odds.
If I start first with the hosts, Watford has failed to score in the opening half of 14 of 22 (64%) league matches, which includes both games under Hodgson and the last five in a row.
Brighton’s scoring numbers in first halves are even worse, failing to find the back of the net in 73 percent of opening stanzas this season. When the Seagulls go on the road, the percentage grows to 83 percent of games.
Another option for attacking this bet is taking the second half to be the half with most goals at +115 odds, as Brighton has had a knack of scoring some late goals to pull out draws.
These managers are not going to set up their teams to be wide open and free-flowing from the start, which should give us a great shot to get to the window with this bet.
Pick: First Half Total Goals Under 0.5 (+155)