Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Liverpool vs. Everton (Saturday, Feb. 20)
Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Sadio Mane (left) and Mohamed Salah.
- Coming off a huge win in the Champions League, Liverpool face a big challenge in the Merseyside Derby.
- The Reds have lost three straight in the Premier League, although Everton have won just once in their last six games.
- Kieran Darcy breaks down why he sees the midweek win as a breakthrough for Liverpool and how he's backing them on Saturday.
Liverpool vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+140 / -177)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
The highlight of Saturday’s four-game Premier League slate is the latest edition of the Merseyside Derby: Liverpool vs. Everton.
This match has taken on even more significance given the two clubs’ proximity in the standings. Liverpool are currently in sixth on 40 points, while Everton are in seventh with 37 and have a game in hand on their city rivals.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Liverpool got a much-needed positive result in the Champions League on Tuesday, winning 2-0 over RB Leipzig in Budapest. Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane scored the goals, both coming on a silver platter via Leipzig defensive mistakes.
More importantly though, Liverpool kept a clean sheet — no howlers from Alisson in goal or new center back Ozan Kabak.
But we can’t forget Liverpool’s recent form in the Premier League. The Reds have lost three in a row — 1-0 to Brighton, 4-1 to Manchester City and 3-1 at Leicester City last Saturday — with huge mistakes from Alisson in the latter two defeats.
Liverpool are still third in the league in terms of expected goal (xG) difference though, according to FBRef.com, at +14.6. Man City (+28.9) are well ahead of them, but Chelsea (+15.7) only very recently overtook them.
Everton were in action midweek as well, in a rescheduled Premier League match against Man City. They lost 3-1, but it could have been worse — they were outshot in the game, 16-3.
Everton were also missing leading scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is tied for third in the league with 13 goals this season. And they lost starting center back Yerry Mina to injury in the first half against City.
That was Everton’s second straight defeat, after also losing at home to 18th-place Fulham, 2-0, last Sunday — a stunning result given it was even more lopsided in terms of xG, with Fulham dominant to the tune of 2.7-0.4.
Everton have won just one of their past six league matches (against Leeds on Feb. 3). And their relatively high position in the table is rather fortunate according to the underlying numbers. In terms of xG difference, Everton is 12th in the Premier League at -3.3.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Derby matches can be tricky. And these teams played out a 2-2 draw at Goodison Park back in mid-October — a match better remembered for Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk suffering a season-ending ACL injury (and Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford inexplicably not being sent off afterward).
As mentioned above, the gap between these two teams is much wider than the table suggests. Everton have not won at Anfield for 22 years, and Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp is unbeaten in 12 matches against the Toffees.
Liverpool’s problem hasn’t been creating chances. They’ve accumulated 45.0 xG in 24 league matches, not far behind Man City (46.6) — and no other club has even cracked 40.0. Everton, on the other hand, have conceded 12 goals in their past four games — three to Man City, two to Fulham (on 2.7 xG), four to Tottenham (in the FA Cup) and three to Manchester United.
Calvert-Lewin is expected back, but I still think Liverpool win this match, and win it comfortably — by more than one goal.
Picks: Liverpool -1.5 (+130)