Serie A Odds, Betting Picks, Preview: Fiorentina Due for Positive Regression vs. Lecce (Wednesday, July 15)

Serie A Odds, Betting Picks, Preview: Fiorentina Due for Positive Regression vs. Lecce (Wednesday, July 15) article feature image
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Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cutrone

Lecce vs. Fiorentina Odds

Lecce odds +265 [BET NOW]
Fiorentina Odds -103 [BET NOW]
Draw +265 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+102/-125) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 3:45 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A bottom half of Serie A table clash takes place on ESPN on Wednesday between Lecce and Fiorentina. Lecce are currently in the relegation zone, only one point from safety.

With a relegation showdown looming with Genoa this weekend, I Giallorossi can put themselves in a great position with a win on Wednesday. Fiorentina are in 13th place, seven points above the relegation zone. Viola better be careful, because if they lose, they could find themselves in the relegation battle with only five matches to play.

Lecce

I Giallorossi has not only been the worst defense in Serie A, but they concede more expected goals per match (2.51) than any team across Europe’s major leagues. Things have not improved since the restart, as Lecce have surrendered 15.04 expected goals in their last six matches. They’ve also been in terrible form in those matches, earning four of a possible 18 points.

Despite their terrible defensive record, Lecce isn’t horrible offensively, scoring 1.31 xG per game. At this point, its no secret that Lecce’s matches are always high scoring.

A whopping 73% of I Giallorossi’s matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals. Personally, I am rooting for Lecce to stay in Serie A. Betting their overs has been one of the more fun parts of the Serie A restart and I am not ready to say goodbye to those just yet.

Fiorentina

It’s been a really disappointing season for Fiorentina, who at this point in the season have their lowest point total in over a decade. However, Viola has been really unlucky this season. Based on expected points, they should be four spots higher in the table and should have 8.92 more points to their name.

Since the restart, the results haven’t been there for Fiorentina, as they’ve only earned six of a possible 18 points. However, they won the expected goals battle 8.85 to 7.29 in those matches, so they should habe earned more than six points.

Fiorentina is due for some positive regression and I think they have a good chance, playing versus the worst defense in Europe’s major leagues.

Analysis

Like most of Lecce’s matches, my model predicts this one to be high scoring. My model also suggests there is some value on Fiorentina to grab all three points in the road:

  • Lecce projected odds: +325 (23.52% win probability)
  • Fiorentina projected odds: -127 (55.95%)
  • Draw projected odds: +387 (20.53%)
  • Lecce projected xG: 1.29
  • Fiorentina projected xG: 2.15

I am going to give everyone the rare double pick in this match and back Fiorentina and Over 3 goals.

Picks: Fiorentina -103, Over 3

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