Juventus vs. Atalanta Odds, Picks and Predictions: How to Bet Saturday’s Serie A Headliner (July 11)

Atalanta at Juventus Odds, Pick

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The best game of the weekend takes place in Serie A as first-place Juventus host third-place Atalanta.

Juventus are almost certainly on their way to a ninth straight Scudetto but Atalanta have suddenly entered the fray. La Dea are nine points back with seven matches to play, so it would take a minor miracle for Atalanta to make a run at Juve but a win on Saturday would make things very interesting down the stretch.

Juventus

The Old Lady dropped their first points since the hiatus by blowing a two-goal lead against AC Milan. The expected goals report shows that Juve were outplayed against Milan and deserved to lose.

Juventus have been dominant this season, but they've done most of their damage against the weaker teams in Serie A:

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Juventus have been lining up in a 4-3-3 as of late. That's the formation that best suits Cristiano Ronaldo and it provides plenty of scoring options going forward. The 4-3-3 also allows teams to combine two factors: a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

Atalanta

In my opinion, Atalanta are the most exciting team in Italy and the numbers back it up. La Dea create 2.43 expected goals per match, easily the best mark in Serie A.

Atalanta's offensive firepower is their calling card but they are far from a one-trick pony. La Dea concede just 1.1 expected goals per match, making them the third-best defense in Serie A.

The hiatus did not slow down Gian Piero Gasperini's side, as La Dea are currently working on a nine-game winning streak going back to February. In fact, Atalanta haven't lost a Serie A match since Jan. 20.

Juventus are league leaders for a reason but Atalanta are playing as well any team in Europe right now. La Dea boast a +11.46 xG differential (19.55 to 8.09) during their nine-game win streak.

Previous Meeting 

Juventus won the reverse fixture, 3-1, at the Gewiss Stadium back in November. However, Atalanta was the better team in that match, outshooting Juventus 22 to 16 and creating 16 chances inside the penalty area. The expected goals report showed that Atalanta should have won the match 2-1.

Analysis

The league leaders are short favorites in this match, but based on my model, I think there is a ton of value on the away side:

• Juventus projected odds: +181 (35.60% win probability)
• Atalanta projected odds: +148 (40.38%)
• Draw projected odds: +316 (24.02%)
• Juventus projected xG: 1.47
• Atalanta projected xG: 1.58