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Sunday Serie A Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Roma vs. Juventus

Sunday Serie A Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Roma vs. Juventus article feature image
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Daniele Badolato – Juventus FC/Juventus FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Juventus standout Paulo Dybala.

  • We have another busy slate of Serie A matches, with several intriguing games taking place on Sunday’s card.
  • Nick Hennion has uncovered his three best bets from the Italian top flight, including a pick from Roma vs. Juventus
  • Check his favorite selections and where he’s found betting value.

Serie A returned from its winter break Thursday and treated bettors to a thoroughly entertaining slate of matches.

While it wasn’t without controversy — four matches were postponed after local governments ordered sides to quarantine — every single club that played got on the scoreboard. As far as the marquee games were concerned, AC Milan came out on top against Roma in a 3-1 victory, while Juventus & Napoli shared the points via a draw at Allianz Stadium.

As far as our picks went, we split down the middle. Our play in Atalanta vs. Torino pushed as a result of a postponement; Sassuolo failed to cash our goal-line play; and, Juventus and Napoli finish out under 2.5 total goals.

Now, we turn our attention to Sunday’s slate and another trio of plays we think will spark your interest.

Serie A Best Bets

Venezia vs. AC Milan

Venezia Odds +550
AC Milan Odds -180
Draw +330
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 6:30 a.m. ET
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Although Venezia fell 2-0 in the reverse fixture against AC Milan, I believe this has all the makings of a (potentially) high-scoring contest.

Even though Venezia has come out slightly lucky in the goal department at home — 12 goals from 10 expected goals – the club has still proven to be somewhat reliable. Only Inter has held the Serie A newcomers off the scoreboard on home soil, while only three sides kept Venezia under 0.8 xG on its home turf, per fbref.com.

Plus, despite failing to score in the reverse fixture against Milan, Venezia managed to create 0.7 xG, including six chances and one big scoring chance, per fotmob.com.

The other aspect that has me intrigued? Milan will enter this match without a number of key defensive pieces. Simon Kjaer is done for the year, while Alessio Romagnoli, Davide Calabria and Fikayo Tomori will miss out after positive COVID-19 tests.

That should provide some opportunities to a Venezia attack that has averaged  one xG in its last four matches. However, bettors should also expect another multi-goal performance from Milan.

In its last five fixtures, Milan has managed 10 goals on 9.6 xG, scoring multiple goals on three occasions.

Plus, for as well as Venezia has performed offensively at home, it has posted below-average defensive metrics of late. After a nice start to the season — five goals against on three xGA in its first four matches – Venezia has gone on to allow 12 goals on 10.6 xGA in its last five matches.

Included in those recent five performances are three matches against Juventus, Inter and Roma, where Venezia conceded five goals on eight xGA, per fbref.com.

Expect those performances to catch up with the club and a high-scoring contest to go along with it.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

Roma vs. Juventus

Roma Odds +235
Juventus Odds +125
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -115)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Had you asked me my opinion of this game before each sides’ respective Thursday fixtures, I would have been all over Roma as a home underdog.

In the reverse fixture between these outfits, Juventus emerged with a 1-0 victory despite losing the xG battle by a 1.4-0.8 margin. That marked the second consecutive match in which Roma won on xG, but lost the match.

However, red cards to Rick Karsdorp and Gianluca Mancini, who will both miss this fixture, in Thursday’s clash at AC Milan have me questioning whether this Roma defense can limit a Juventus attack that has played well (10 goals on 9.7 xG) in its last six fixtures.

Additionally, Roma is due for a good amount of negative defensive regression at home, having conceded eight goals on 12 xG, per fbref.com.

Plus, even without Karsdorp and Mancini, who have each only missed a single match, Roma still ranks out ninth in xGA per 90 minutes and shots on target against/90 minutes, while sitting 10th in total xGA, per fbref.com.

Lastly, perhaps the biggest advantage Juventus holds is its ability to pressure. The Old Lady sits third in successful pressure percentage, while Roma is 13th in successful pressure percentage against.

Add in the fact Juventus has only one deserved loss in matches against the top six and I expect it will do no worse than a draw.

Pick: Juventus -0.25 (-105)

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Inter vs. Lazio

Inter Odds -245
Lazio Odds +650
Draw +400
Over/Under 3.5 (+135 / -160)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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For as dominant as Inter Milan has been the season, arguably its most impressive achievement is its record in matches against the top half.

Through nine such matches, Inter has scored 21 goals on 20 xG, while conceding only 11 goals on 11.6 xGA this season. Additionally, all but one of its five victories have come by multiple goals.

There is one blemish on that near-perfect resume — a 3-1 road loss to Lazio — which the reigning champion will have a chance to avenge. And from where I’m sitting, I rate Inter as a good bet to do just that.

However, there’s no side price at which I’m willing to get involved, so I’m choosing to target a total instead.

For as good as Inter has performed against Serie A’s best sides, its defense has tended to take a back seat in those fixtures. In fact, Inter has only kept one clean sheet in matches against the top eight, while allowing two or more goals in three of those seven games.

That said, the Nerrazzurri have also scored at least three goals in three of those seven outings and at least two in four of seven contests. The scary part? Inter is actually due for some positive offensive regression based on those seven matches, having scored 14 goals on 15 xG in the process.

Against a Lazio side which is 11th in shots on target against per 90 minutes;  12th in xGA; 13th in road xGA; and, 18th in goal-creating actions against, expect Inter to drive the scoring and produce another outstanding offensive performance.

However, don’t be surprised if Lazio knocks a goal past Samir Handanovich and helps you clear this number on the total via this Asian Handicap line.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-120)

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