European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for This Week’s Champions League Matches (Oct. 27-28)
Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Leo Messi.
The first round of Champions League saw some crazy upsets and Europe’s elite clubs establishing their dominance.
Here’s some highlights of what we saw:
- Bayern Munich began their title defense with a dominant 4-0 over Atletico Madrid, who are one of best defensive teams in Europe.
- Manchester United pulled off a 2-1 upset on the road against French champions PSG behind an 87th-minute winner from Marcus Rashford.
- Real Madrid were upset by Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk, 3-2, at home.
- Juventus, Liverpool, Barcelona and Manchester City all took care of business and took three points from their respective opening fixtures.
For the second round, we have very few “big” matches, but there are still some really interesting fixtures upcoming this week.
If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Champions League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market. That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI:
Notes for Tuesday’s matches:
- Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Real Madrid: Los Blancos will need to rebound from their opening-fixture defeat. They beat their bitter rivals Barcelona in La Liga over the weekend to end their two-match losing streak. Gladbach was a 90th-minute Romelu Lukaku equalizer away from beating Inter Milan on the road in their first group match. Gladbach had a +18.88 expected goal differential at home in the Bundesliga last season, which was second to only Bayern Munich.
- Atalanta vs. Ajax: If you’re looking for goals, this is the match for you. Atalanta was the highest scoring team in Europe last season at 2.58 goals per match. Ajax lost to Liverpool in their first match in the Champions League but took out their frustration in the Eredivisie over the weekend, scoring 13 goals — yes, 13 — in a win over Venlo.
Tuesday’s Injury News:
- Lokomotiv Moscow: Dmitri Barinov (CM) is out against Bayern Munich.
- Inter: Alexis Sanchez (ST) and Stefano Sensi (CM) are doubtful to play against Shakhtar.
- Manchester City: Gabriel Jesus (ST), Aymeric Laporte (CB) and Benjamin Mendy (LB) are out against Marseille.
- Bayern Munich: Alponso Davies (LB) is out against Lokomotiv Moscow.
- Atletico Madrid: Diego Costa (ST), Saul Niguez (CM) and Sime Vrsaljko (RB) are out against Salzburg.
- Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB), Thiago (CM) and Joel Matip (CB) are out against Midtjylland.
Wednesday’s Injury News:
- Manchester United vs. RB Leipzig: Manchester United will try to extend their unbeaten run to five matches in all competitions. The Red Devils were involved in a 0-0 snooze fest against Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig have won five of their first six matches in all competitions by a combined score of 14-3.
- Juventus vs. Barcelona: The reuniting of Messi vs. Ronaldo was spoiled due to Ronaldo testing positive a second time for COVID-19. Barcelona lost to their bitter rivals Real Madrid at home in La Liga over the weekend, while Juventus were only able to draw against Hellas Verona in Serie A.
Tuesday’s Injury News:
- Juventus: Cristiano Ronaldo (CF) is doubtful due multiple positive COVID-19 tests.
- Zenit: Malcom (CAM) is doubtful to face Dortmund
- PSG: Mauro Icardi (ST), Juan Bernat (LB) and Thilo Kehrer (CB) are out versus Istanbul.
- Barcelona: Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Marc-Andre ter Stegen (GK) are out vs. Juventus.
- Club Brugge: Simon Mignolet (GK), Simon Deli (CB) and Michael Krmencik (ST) are probable to face Lazio.
- Lazio: Club is currently dealing with a COVID outbreak as nine players have tested positive including Ciro Immobile (ST), Luis Alberto (CM), Andreas Pereira (CAM).