European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and More (Nov. 27 -Nov. 30)
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Club soccer returns to Europe’s major five leagues after two weeks off due to another international break. In case you forgot here’s some of what we saw a little over a week ago:
- Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool all took care of business in the Premier League.
- Tottenham beat Manchester City, 2-0, at home to move a top the Premier League table.
- Bayern Munich were only able to draw with Werder Bremen at home, and their lead atop the Bundesliga is down to one point.
- Erling Haaland scored four goals in Dortmund’s 5-2 win over Hertha Berlin.
- Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona, 1-0, at home, extending their unbeaten streak to 24 matches.
- AC Milan won, 3-1, on the road at Napoli to stay atop the Serie A table.
- Monaco erased a 2-0 halftime deficit against PSG to win, 3-2, at home. It was their first win against PSG since 2016.
This weekend’s slate doesn’t have very many “big” matches, but there is still plenty of action and matches to bet on. Many teams who are participating in Champions League and Europa League are in a “sandwich spot” with matches happening during the week and next week. Therefore, it may be a good idea to wait until starting lineups come out before heading to the window.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Premier League Notes:
- Chelsea vs. Tottenham: This is a huge London derby between the first- and third-place clubs in the Premier League. Jose Mourinho painted his masterpiece of the season, beating Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, 2-0, despite getting outshot 22-4. Spurs are also a perfect 4-0-0 on the road this season. Chelsea is one of the hottest teams in the Europe right now. The Blues have won five straight matches in all competitions, outscoring their opponents 16-1 in that span. Chelsea has won three straight matches versus Tottenham.
Premier League Injury News:
- Arsenal: Nicholas Pepe (RW), Bukayo Saka (LWB) and Willian (RW) are out against Wolves and Thomas Partey (CM) is questionable.
- Aston Villa: Ross Barkley (CAM) and Bertrand Traore (RW) have been ruled out against West Ham.
- Burnley: Jack Cork (CM) and Robbie Brady (RM) are out against Manchester City.
- Chelsea: Christian Pulisic (RW) is questionable to play against Tottenham.
- Crystal Palace: Lucas Milivojevic (CM) and Wilfred Zaha (LW) are both questionable to play against Newcastle.
- Everton: Seamus Coleman (RB) is out against Leeds.
- Leicester: Wilfred Ndidi (CM), Caglar Soyuncu (CB) and Daniel Armartey (CM) are all out against Fulham, and Timothy Castagne (RB) is questionable.
- Liverpool: Virgil Van Dijk (CB), Jordan Henderson (CM), Joe Gomez (CB), Thiago (CM) and Naby Keita (CM) are out against Brighton, and Trent Alexander-Arnold (LB) is questionable.
- Manchester City: Benjamin Mendy (LB) is questionable to play against Burnley.
- Manchester United: Luke Shaw (LB) is out against Southampton, and Mason Greenwood (RW), Paul Pogba (CM) and Jesse Lingard (CAM) are all questionable.
- Newcastle: Jamaal Lascellas (CB) and Dwight Gayle (ST) are all out against Chelsea, and Callum Wilson (ST) and Matt Ritchie (LM) is questionable.
- Sheffield United: Lys Mousset (ST) is questionable against West Brom, and Jack O’Connell (CB) is out.
- Southampton: Danny Ings (ST) and Nathan Redmond (LM) are both out against Manchester United.
- Tottenham: Toby Alderweireld (CB) is out against Chelsea.
- West Ham: Michail Antonio (ST) is questionable to face Aston Villa.
- Vfb Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich: The German Champions were held to a 1-1 draw at home against Werder Bremen last weekend, bringing their lead in the Bundesliga down to one point over Dortmund and Leverkusen. Stuttgart have yet to win at home this season in the Bundesliga.
Bundesliga Injury News:
- Bayern Munich: Joshua Kimmich (CM) and Alphonso Davies (LB) are out for an extended period of time.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM) is out against Hertha Berlin.
- Borussia Monchengladbach: Jonas Hoffman (RM) and Alessane Plea (ST) are both questionable to play against Schalke.
- Freiburg: Janik Haberer (CM) is questionable to play against Augsburg.
- Hertha Berlin: Jordan Torunaigha (CB) is questionable against Leverkusen.
- Hoffenheim: Nine players have tested positive for COVID and their status is unknown for Saturday’s match against Mainz.
- Koln: Jonas Hector (CM), Timo Horn (GK) and Florian Kainz (RM) are questionable against Union Berlin.
- Schalke 04: Salif Sane (CB) is out against Borussia Monchengladbach and Suat Serder (CM) is questionable.
Serie A Notes:
- Napoli vs. Roma: Another top-five battle at home for Napoli, who fell to AC Milan, 3-1, last weekend. Napoli has lost lost three matches against clubs in the top four and are undefeated against everyone else. Roma, on other hand, is unbeaten in their last seven matches in Serie A.
Serie A Injury News
- AC Milan: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (ST) is out against Fiorentina.
- Cagliari: Diego Godin (CB) is out against Spezia.
- Fiorentina: Franck Ribery (LM) is questionable to face AC Milan.
- Genoa: Mattia Perin (GK) and Marko Pjaca (RW) are out against Udinese, and Domenico Criscito (LB) and Cristian Zapata (CB) are questionable.
- Inter: Stefano Sensi (CM) is questionable to face Torino.
- Juventus: Leonardo Bonucci (CB), Giorgio Chiellini (CB) and Gianlugi Buffon (GK) are all questionable to face Benevento.
- Lazio: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (CM) is questionable to face Udinese.
- Napoli: Tiemoue Bakayoko (CM) is out against Roma and Victor Osimhen (ST) and Elseid Hysaj (LB) are questionable.
- Roma: Chris Smalling (CB) is questionable to face Napoli.
- Sampdoria: Keita Balde (RW) is questionable to face Torino.
- Sassuolo: Francesco Caputo (ST) is questionable to face Inter Milan.
- Torino: Andrea Belotti (ST) is questionable to face Sampdoria.
- Udinese: Roberto Pereyra (CM) is questionable to face Genoa.
- Verona: Nikola Kalinic (ST), Darko Lazovic (LM), Koray Gunter (CB), Marco Davide Faraoni (RM) and Matteo Lovato (CB) are all questionable to face Atalanta.
La Liga Notes:
- Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid: Valencia is coming off a 4-1 upset of the other Madrid club in their last home match. Atletico is unbeaten in their last 25 matches in all competitions and hasn’t lost to Valencia since 2014. A win could also put Atletico in first place.
- Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal: Both clubs are unexpectedly inside the top four to start the season. Real Sociedad are atop the La Liga table and have won six straight matches. Villarreal is in third place and unbeaten in their last seven league games. The road team has won the last four matches between these two clubs.
La Liga Injuries:
- Atletico Madrid: Hector Herrera (CM), Luis Suarez (ST) and Sime Vrsaljko RB) are questionable to face Valencia.
- Barcelona: Lionel Messi (CF), Frankie de Jong (CM), Samuel Umtiti (CB), Gerard Pique (CB), and Sergi Roberto (RB) are all questionable to face Osasuna. Ansu Fati (LW) is out for four months with a knee injury.
- Cadiz: Jose Mari (CM) is questionable to face Elche.
- Celta Vigo: Emre Mor (CAM) is questionable to play versus Sevilla.
- Elche: Youssouf Kone (LB) and Fidel (LM) are questionable to face Levante.
- Eibar: Kike (ST) is out against Real Betis
- Granada: Kenedy (RW) is questionable to play vs. Celta Vigo.
- Levante: Enis Bardhi (LM) is questionable to face Real Valladolid.
- Real Betis: Aissa Mandi (CB) is out against Athletic Bilbao, and Nabil Fekir (CAM) and Sergio Canales (CM) is questionable.
- Real Madrid: Karim Benzema (ST) and Sergio Ramos are questionable to face Alaves.
- Sevilla: Marcos Acuna (LB) is questionable to face Huesca.
- Valencia: Jose Gaya (LB) and Jasper Cillessen (GK) are both questionable to face Alaves.
- Villarreal: Paco Alcacer (ST) and Alberto Moreno (LB) are questionable to face Real Soceidad.
Ligue 1 Notes:
- PSG vs. Bordeaux: The French Champions’ lead in Ligue 1 is down to two points after falling 3-2 at Monaco last weekend. PSG secured a 1-0 victory over RB Leipzig in Champions League play on Tuesday, so we may see them rotate the squad in this one. Bordeaux was once one of France’s elite clubs but have fallen on hard times. They are in 12th place and have lost three of their last five matches. Bordeaux’s last win against PSG came in 2015.
Ligue 1 Injuries:
- Angers: Sofiane Boufal (LW), Abdoulaye Bamba (RB) and Jimmy Cabot (RM) are all questionable to play against Lens.
- Brest: Romain Philippoteaux (LM) and Christophe Herelle (CB) are both questionable to face Metz.
- Dijon: Eric Emimbe (LM) is questionable to face Nice.
- Lille: Renato Sanches (CM) and Zeki Celik (RB) are questionable to face Saint-Etienne.
- Monaco: Wissan Ben Yedder (ST) is questionable to play against Nimes.
- Montpellier: Damien Le Tallec (CM) is out against Lorient.
- Nantes: Moses Simon (LM) is questionable to play against Marseille.
- Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) and Hassane Kamara (LM) are questionable against Dijon and Morgan Schneiderlin (CM) is out.
- PSG: Mauro Icardi (ST), Julian Draxler (CAM) and Idrissa Gueye (CM) are all questionable against Bordeaux.
- Reims: Xavier Chavalerin (CM) is questionable to face Lyon.
- Saint Etienne: Romain Hamouma (ST) is out against Lille and Panagiotis Retsos (CB) is questionable.
- Strasbourg: Bingorurou Kamara (GK) and Alexander Djiku (CDM) are questionable to face Rennes.