Southampton vs Brentford Odds, Pick: Back The Saints in a Unique Manner
Martin Rickett/Getty. Pictured: Kamaldeen Sulemana.
Southampton vs Brentford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -135)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-130 / -110)|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brentford visit a team in a relegation fight for a second consecutive match when they face Southampton on Wednesday in a make-up from the fall.
The Bees saw their 12-match Premier League unbeaten run halted on Saturday in a 1-0 loss at a disciplined Everton squad. That defeat exposed one weakness that has continued to plague the Bees this season — playing an opponent who concedes the majority of the possession.
Southampton have kept back-to-back clean sheets for the first time this season after a 0-0 draw at Manchester United that was far more exciting than the score suggested. But, they still remain last in the table due to the good results of others near them in the relegation fight.
This match was originally scheduled for match day 7 in September, which was postponed due to Queen Elizabeth II’s passing. Brentford won these teams’ other scheduled meeting 3-0 in West London back in early February.
Southampton Shoring Up on Defensive End
The Saints have conceded only one Premier League goal in four matches since manager Nathan Jones was sacked and Ruben Selles was appointed to take the reigns.
To be sure, the Saints have benefitted from some good fortune in their last two defensive shutouts.
In a 1-0 victory over Leicester City, Foxes forward Kelechi Iheanacho had an exceptionally poor day in front of goal. He had 1.1 expected goals (xG) worth of chances across five shots, but he failed to put any of those attempts on frame.
In their draw at Manchester United on Sunday, the Red Devils lost their influential midfielder Casimero to a red card late in the first half.
The South Coasters also got a bit lucky with Carlos Alcaraz’s knee injury, which hasn’t been nearly as serious as first feared. The 20-year old Argentine has been influential since signing in the winter transfer window from Racing Club. He went 55 minutes against Manchester United after he was a doubt for the game earlier in the week.
Perhaps Southampton have been due some good fortune. Despite entering the midweek in last in the table, they sit 13th in xG difference this season at -9.5, well above their -21 goal difference. Only Nottingham Forest are underperforming their xGDiff by a wider margin.
Brentford Need Favorable Game Script
The Bees conceded in the first minute to Everton’s Dwight McNeil in their 1-0 defeat over the weekend. While they had plenty of time to fight back, it set up an unfavorable dynamic.
Sean Dyche’s Toffees were already likely to allow the Bees more of the ball. McNeil’s goal made it doubly so, and Brentford set a season-high by keeping 67% of the possession.
As we noted last week, winning as a ball-dominant side has been difficult for Thomas Frank’s men. They’re now 0-3-6 (W-L-D) in the nine Premier League games in which they’ve had more possession than their opponent.
Even so, the Bees were unfortunate not to find the net at least once, as they’d done in six of the previous eight games in the above sample. They’d been one of the better-attacking sides in the entire league of late, scoring 22 times en route to their 12-match unbeaten run.
Ivan Toney’s 15 goals are the third-most in the Premier League, but he only has one non-penalty goal in his last seven matches.
Southampton vs Brentford Pick
Under Selles, Southampton have reverted to a similar pressing game model as under their first coach this season, Ralph Hasenhuttl. They’ve only kept more than 40% of the possession in one game with Selles in charge, and that came against an opponent playing a man down for more than a half.
Brentford will probably be charged with creating the game again, a dynamic that doesn’t necessarily suit them. Southampton’s woeful home record — under former managers — has probably made the price here on the home side more lucrative than it should be.
Much like Everton on the weekend, Southampton appear to be a team improved by a manager simplifying the plan. I see value on them here, and I’m playing the same wager against Brentford as the week before: A same-game parlay on Southampton to win or draw and the total coming in under 2.5 at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability.
That bet has cashed in three of the four games managed by Selles and in six of those nine games where Brentford has had the greater share of the ball.
As a bit of a hedge (which could also cash in a 1-1 draw), I also like the Bees to score 1 or 2 goals (-165). They’ve done so in 8-of-12 away matches.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay – Southampton or Draw + Under 2.5 (+145)
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