Southampton vs. West Ham United Betting Preview: Is West Ham Being Undervalued?

Southampton vs. West Ham Odds

West Ham has won back-to-back matches in the Premier League against Wolves and Fulham and has finally found some winning form after a poor start to the 2022-23 season. After two straight home wins, the Hammers will hit the road to the English south coast to take on Southampton.

The Hammers won just one of their first six matches in the league and found themselves in the relegation zone until a few weeks ago. After a top-10 finish last season and a couple of additions to the squad in the summer transfer window, West Ham was expected to finish inside the top half of the league.

The market is giving a lot of respect to the Hammers as slight road favorites in this match, but the underlying performances suggest David Moyes' side is starting to turn the corner.

Southampton

The Saints have one of the most unique statistical profiles in the entire league because the shots allowed and shots created numbers suggest they are a mid-table side in the league. The Saints rank eighth in shots conceded and 11th in shots allowed in the league per 90 minutes. However, the quality of shots created and allowed at both ends of the pitch means they're frequently conceding big chances and creating long range shots for themselves.

The Saints rank 10th in average shot distance created and 18th in average shot distance allowed. They rank 18th in big scoring chances allowed and that's a dangerous way to play against a West Ham side that excels at creating one or two big chances through set pieces or direct attacks.

Southampton has only held three attacks under one expected goal created this season — Wolves, Aston Villa and Leicester City. West Ham's attack has been much better than all three of those teams when looking at the underlying numbers.

West Ham

West Ham has a negative goal differential thus far in the league, but remains a positive regression candidate in attack. The underlying numbers looked bad to begin the season, but the insertion of Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta to the front line and midfield is adding more punch alongside an already solid defense.

The Hammers struggled to get the ball into the penalty area early in the season and were missing the auxiliary shot production as an aging Michail Antonio saw his numbers in decline. However, Jarrod Bowen seems to be finding his form of late and Paqueta has supplemented that with seven shots in three games from the midfield role.

They only had 10 or more key passes in one of their first six Premier League matches. Yet, in the past three games, the Hammers have posted 10, 11 and 12. They're also getting the ball into the penalty area by carrying it more often. They've carried it into the area five or more times in each of the past three matches.

Bowen attempted 11 shots in the first six matches of the season and tallied just 0.9 xG in total in that time frame. He's played his way into form and has accumulated 1.8 xG and attempted 12 shots in the past three matches.

A more lively Hammers attack should help them against a mistake-prone Southampton defense.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

West Ham's defense is third in non-penalty xG allowed, in the middle of the table in box entries allowed and has conceded less than 1 xG in each of its past six league matches.

Southampton has struggled defensively on set pieces for the past few years and that’s one area where West Ham has excelled in years past. The Hammers have a ball progression problem — they’re just 17th in box entries — but Paqueta’s shots and passing have boosted them considerably in the past few matches.

The Saints have conceded the second most xG from set pieces this season and that's a potential massive edge for West Ham. The Hammers are undervalued to take all three points in my projections and I'd bet them at +130 or better.

The Pick: West Ham ML +140