Southampton vs. West Ham Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Total Has Value in EPL Clash

Southampton vs. West Ham Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Total Has Value in EPL Clash article feature image
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Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham celebrates a Michail Antonio goal.

  • Southampton hopes it can get a positive result in Saturday's Premier League match against West Ham United.
  • The Saints have a tough task ahead of them with Hammers, who are tied for a league-best 10 goals this season.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down his Southampton vs. West Ham pick below.

Southampton vs. West Ham Odds

Southampton Odds +190
West Ham Odds +140
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +115)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Southampton continues a difficult start to its home Premier League slate when it hosts West Ham United on Saturday at Saint Mary’s Stadium.

The Saints opened its home slate with a 1-1 draw against Manchester United in their second game of the season in a match they led through a first-half, own goal before conceding 10 minutes after the break.

West Ham have been the revelation of the season so far, scoring a league best-tying 10 goals while earning seven points in three games.

If the Hammers want to make the transition from Europa League to Champions League football next season, this is the kind of away win that would help the cause.

Southampton Feeling Optimistic Despite Results

The Saints are still looking for their first league win, but their home draw to Man U and away point at Newcastle are reason for measured optimism.

Their 2-2 draw at St. James’ Park in Round 3 was one of the early Premier League matches of the season, with the Saints twice responding from a goal down after halftime.

James Ward-Prowse leveled the game for good in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time on a penalty awarded following a video review.

The Saints are fifth in the Prem in xG created (5.1) and xG allowed (5.3), though the majority of the former tally came from their trip Tyneside.

Winger Theo Walcott is expected to be out after starting the Saints’ opening two league matches and coming on as a sub in an 8-0 League Cup romp over Newport County.

He’s one of four on the senior squad considered unavailable for manager Ralph Hasenhüttl.

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International Break Could Provide Boost to West Ham

While the September international window will have negative impacts on many clubs, it may have been a blessing for the Hammers.

All three of their late-summer signings — CB Kurt Zouma, MF Alex Král and FW Nikola Vlašić — made contributions in international play over the break that should counter any concerns over match fitness for manager David Moyes.

Whether any will make their debut at the St. Mary’s is less clear given West Ham’s excellent early form and clean bill of health.

Newly minted Jamaican international Michail Antonio leads all Premier League scorers with four goals and also has three assists.

But perhaps international duty will have stalled his momentum. Antonio failed to register a shot in his maiden appearance for the Reggae Boyz, a stunning 3-0 home loss to Panama.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The game within the game is the clash of Hasenhüttl’s high-press and Moyes’ prioritization of organization and tactical malleability.

That could create a scenario that leads to fewer chances than you’d expect from a team that loves to play high tempo and another that leads the Prem in goals scored.

The Hammers may be a UEFA Europa League team now, but they haven’t ascended to a place where fans prioritize style over results. And Moyes is more likely than some to take a more conservative despite having the superior roster.

That could put the Saints in the unusual position of being asked to create the game, one that’s opposite to their ethos.

As such, I’m playing the total under 2.5 goals at +115 odds and an implied 46.5% probability.

It also doesn’t hurt that Antonio will be returning from a frustrating World Cup qualifying debut and grueling transatlantic trip. Nor does it that this fixture has gone under the total on both previous occasions with Moyes in charge.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+115)

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