2023 Women’s World Cup Final Picks | Spain vs England Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Alexis Putellas.
Spain vs England Odds
The Women's World Cup final is here. Spain vs England is the showpiece match in a tournament that has featured exciting matches for approximately a month.
Our betting experts have found their favorite bets for the fixture, and they're all aligned on a specific side to raise the trophy on Sunday morning.
Read on to see how we're betting Spain vs. England in the Women's World Cup final.
Anthony Dabbundo: Spain PK (-130 or better)
Spain have been the best team at the Women's World Cup. They've averaged more than 3 xG per 90 and conceded just 3.5 xGA in six matches. The matches against the Netherlands and Sweden came down to the final moments, but Spain were the better side throughout both when you consider the possession in dangerous areas and chances created. The Spanish have also faced a considerably more difficult schedule of opponents when compared to England.
The English seem to never lose under manager Sarina Wiegman — the Lionesses beat Spain in the round of 16 in a coin flip match en route to the Euro title on home soil last year and have overcome some up-and-down performances throughout this tournament to reach the final. For the first time all tournament, though, England will face an opponent that will press them high and aim to hold a majority of the possession. Spain have more attacking depth and while the defense has switched off in key moments, they've still conceded fewer xG and shots when compared to England.
Even though England will have top scorer Lauren James back from suspension, Spain should be more of a favorite to lift the trophy in regulation.
BJ Cunningham: Spain to Lift The Trophy (-112 via FanDuel)
This is a very interesting match to see who has more game control.
Spain have successfully played their possession dominant build up style throughout this tournament and the underlying metrics bare out that they’ve been the best team (+14.8 xG differential in six matches). England haven't been as dominant and has a +4.8 xG differential.
In fact, England lost the xG battle in two of their three matches in the knockout stage and got outshot by Australia in their most recent match.
These teams met last summer at the Euros and England won the match in extra time, but Spain dominated the first hour, controlling over 60% of the possession and taking eight of the first nine shots.
The key for England is going to be their high pressing when Spain tries to build out of the back. England’s style of play is very aggressive, and they've forced the third-most high turnovers at the World Cup. Sweden forced multiple high turnovers, which led to a number of chances against Spain. That will need to be England’s best path to success out of possession.
Spain have been the more impressive team throughout this tournament and probably should be a bigger favorite, so I like the value on them to lift the trophy.
Johnathan Wright: Spain to Lift The Trophy (-112)
Despite all the upsets and crazy finishes in this year's Women's World Cup, we are ending with the two teams (aside from the USA) that oddsmakers gave the greatest chance to be here. Spain had the second-shortest pre-tournament odds, England had the third. Spain remain the slight favorite heading into Sunday's final, and I agree that should be the case.
Spain tends to dominate possession, averaging 70% of the ball in their six games throughout the World Cup. It's not just useless possession either. Spain leads the tournament in goals (16) and over 80% of their touches have come in the middle or final third of the pitch. Their possession is also their best defense, as they have allowed the fewest goals of any team that advanced beyond the group stage (six, and four of those came in their defeat to Japan). England have a potent offense and will benefit from Lauren James' return, but their chances will be minimal.
Back the Dreamers to exact revenge on the Lionesses from their quarterfinal defeat in the 2022 Euros and lift the trophy on the sport's biggest stage.