Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Burnley vs. Newcastle United (Sunday, April 11)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Burnley vs. Newcastle United (Sunday, April 11) article feature image
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Visionhaus. Pictured: Callum Wilson

  • Burnley welcomes Newcastle United to Turf Moor for Sunday's Premier League match.
  • The Magpies, who were one of our top European underdog play this weekend, have a shot at getting clear of the relegation zone.
  • BJ Cunningham details why he likes Newcastle to bag all three points in this showdown.

Burnley vs. Newcastle Odds

Burnley Odds +133
Newcastle Odds +240
Draw +205
Over/Under 2.5 (+138 / -175)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

A massive relegation battle kicks off Sunday morning with three points vital to both Burnley and Newcastle’s chances of survival at stake.

Burnley is currently sitting seven points above the drop zone and could guarantee another season in the Premier League with a win on Sunday. The Clarets have been in decent form, with only two losses in their last nine matches. However, Newcastle got the better of them in the first meeting, winning 3-1 at St. James’ Park, so the Clarets will be looking for some revenge.

Newcastle is in a precarious position, sitting only three points ahead of Fulham for the final relegation spot. The good news for Steve Bruce’s side is they are finally starting to get healthy. Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson are both finally fit enough to play alongside each other, which is huge since they are the club’s two main goal scoring threats. The Magpies offense came alive against Tottenham last weekend, so we will see if they will be able to keep it going against Burnley’s 4-4-2 formation.

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Burnley

Burnley’s ultra-defensive style of play is very difficult to break down if you aren’t ready for a physical battle. They don’t allow you to play through the middle of the pitch and would rather teams try and play in from out wide. The 4-4-2 formation allows Burnley to stick eight guys behind the ball and  absorb the opponent’s attack and dare then to beat them with crosses into the middle.

However, Burnley’s 4-4-2 hasn’t been as successful defensively than in years past. The Clarets are allowing 1.50 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Last season they only allowed 1.33 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of the 4-4-2.

The biggest problem for Burnley trying to achieve defensive perfection is their offense often suffers, as they’re averaging only 0.90 xG per match. So, you can see why 67% of Burnley’s matches this season have gone under 2.5 goals.

Newcastle

Up until the match against Tottenham last weekend, the Magpies were really struggling. However, something clicked in their 2-2 draw with Spurs because Newcastle created a whopping 4.07 xG in the contest. They actually created more expected goals in that match then they had created in their previous five contests combined.

The best news Newcastle could have received this week is that star striker Callum Wilson is fit enough to play against Burnley.

Wilson has a 0.58 xG per 90 minute scoring rate and has 10 of the club’s 29 goals in the Premier League this season. Wilson means everything to Newcastle’s offense, as its been a world of a difference without him in the lineup. So, I think with Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin we will see a revitalized Newcastle attack on Sunday morning.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Newcastle is healthy and I think ther’es reason to believe their performance against Tottenham was legitimate. Thus, I think they are going to give Burnley a lot of trouble. The Clarets rely almost entirely on set pieces to score their goals, as they’re only averaging 0.60 xG per match from open play this season.

Therefore, I am going to back Newcastle on the Draw No Bet line at +135 odds.

Pick: Newcastle — Draw No Bet (+135)

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