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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sheffield United vs. Arsenal (Sunday, April 11)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sheffield United vs. Arsenal (Sunday, April 11) article feature image

Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Mikel Arteta

  • Arsenal takes on Sheffield United in Sunday's Premier League match at Bramall Lane.
  • Neither team has much to play for in this match, with the Gunners sitting in the middle of the pack and the Blades heading to relegation.
  • Kieran Darcy weighs in which side of the odds provides value in this showdown between two disappointing teams below.

Sheffield United vs. Arsenal Odds

Sheffield United Odds +510
Arsenal Odds -175
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 
Day | Time Sunday | 2 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The fourth and final Premier League match on Sunday will feature two teams finishing up very disappointing seasons.

Here’s a closer look at Sheffield United and Arsenal, followed by a prediction.

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Sheffield United

Sheffield United have eight games remaining before they return to the second division. For now, they remain in last place in the Premier League, with just 14 points after 30 matches — seven fewer than any other club, and 15 points from safety entering Sunday.

Sheffield have scored just 17 goals, seven fewer than any other team. And they’ve conceded 52 — only West Brom (59) and Southampton (53) have conceded more.

The underlying numbers are just about as grim. Sheffield United have the second-worst xG (expected goal) differential in the league, according to FBRef, at -23.2  — only West Brom are worse (-27.9).

Sheffield United lost 2-1  at Leeds last Saturday, but the scoreline doesn’t tell the full story. Leeds outshot them 23-9, and topped them in terms of xG, 2.5 to 1.0.

Sheffield have lost their past four matches, if you include their 2-0 FA Cup quarterfinal defeat to Chelsea on March 21. The other losses during that stretch were 2-0 to Southampton, and 5-0 at Leicester City.


Arsenal don’t have much to play for at this point, either. They enter Sunday in 11th place with 42 points — 12 points behind fourth-place Chelsea. They’re not in danger of relegation, but they’re not in the race for an automatic Champions League spot next season, either.

The only way Arsenal will be playing in the Champions League next season is if they win this year’s Europa League. Which means their quarterfinal second leg at Slavia Prague this coming Thursday is a much bigger priority than Sunday’s match against Sheffield United.

Arsenal drew 1-1 with Slavia Prague at home this past Thursday, conceding a 93rd-minute equalizer, which canceled out Nicolas Pepe’s 86th-minute strike. The shots were almost even (11-10), but Arsenal had the better of the chances, topping the xG by 1.8 to 0.6.

Speaking of xG, Arsenal are about where they should be in the table, in terms of that metric. They entered the weekend with the ninth-best xG differential in the league, at +4.1 — very similar to their actual goal difference of +5 (40 goals scored, 35 conceded in 30 matches).

Since winning the North London derby over Tottenham Hotspur on March 14, Arsenal have failed to win their next four matches. In addition to the draw with Slavia Prague, there was also a draw at West Ham (3-3), and losses to Liverpool (3-0) and Olympiacos (1-0).

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When these teams met back in early October, Arsenal won 2-1.  But each team had only six shots, and they combined for a paltry 0.6 xG between them. Yuck!

I’m going to keep it simple here. Arsenal, as disappointing as they have been this season, have a much better squad than Sheffield United. And if you put aside the brutal loss to Liverpool last weekend, in which Arsenal took just three shots, they had generated at least 1.5 xG in their other seven matches dating back to Feb. 28.

Sheffield United have scored just two goals in their past seven league matches combined — averaging 0.7 xG per match, with no more than 1.0 xG in any of them.

Arsenal should win, and probably by more than one goal.

Pick: Arsenal -1 (+102)

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