Sweden vs Italy Odds, Picks | Women’s World Cup Best Bets

Sweden vs Italy Odds, Picks | Women’s World Cup Best Bets article feature image

Catherine Ivill/Getty. Pictured: Johanna Kaneryd.

Sweden vs Italy Odds

Saturday, July 29
3:30 a.m. ET
Sweden Odds-118
Italy Odds+375
Over/Under2.5 (+125 / -163)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+100 / -138)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Sweden will face off against Italy early on Saturday morning to close out the second round of matches for Group G in the 2023 Women's World Cup.

Both sides won their opening match, meaning if there is a winner in Saturday's competition, they will clinch a spot in the knockout phase due to South Africa and Argentina drawing in their head-to-head on Thursday.

Sweden, the third-ranked team in the FIFA rankings, fought off South Africa to pull out a 2-1 victory in their first-round match thanks to a 90th-minute go-ahead goal from their center back Amanda Llestedt.

Italy, the 16th-ranked team in the world, had an equally challenging match. They defeated Argentina with an 87th-minute winner from substitute Cristina Girelli.

Will we see either country display another clutch performance on Saturday? Here is a breakdown of the Sweden vs Italy odds, and my pick for the 2023 Women's World Cup match.

Sweden Look to Build Off Stoppage Time Heroics

Sweden are an international powerhouse.They have qualified for every World Cup, reaching the knockout rounds in seven of the last eight and finishing third in 2019. However, as of late the Swedes have not been in the best of form. 

Prior to their victory over South Africa, they came into the tournament on a seven-game winless drought in non-friendly matches. Getting punched in the mouth is just what manager Peter Gerhardsson's side needed, as something changed for the Swedes in the final 30 minutes after giving up an early second-half goal to South Africa. 

The comeback for Sweden can be credited to their large air presence. Their first goal happened in open play, where a South African player scored an own goal off of an in-swinging cross. Their second came off one of the 13 corners they accumulated throughout the game. 

A cross-heavy approach is a tactical gameplan that Gerhardsson will likely continue to run against the Italians. Gerhardsson lines his side up in a 3-4-2-1. This allows Sweden to stretch the field and gives space to the outside wingbacks for an early ball over the defense. This tactic could be essential for breaking down Italy's high press. 

Italy Are a Strong Defensive Unit

The headlines for Italy after their narrow one-nil victory were about their commitment to their younger generation of players. Both 18-year-old Chiara Veccari and 16-year-old Giulia 'little Messi' Dragoni started the match.

However, despite their strong World Cup debuts, the real story was The Azzurre's defensive performance. They held Argentina to only one shot on target and allowed one accurate cross to be made.

Manager Milena Bertolini lined her team up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Italy will press high, starting with their one striker, and then if the opposition bypasses that they will have a numbers advantage in the midfield. Even if there is a rare moment when the opposition finds a gap within the middle of the park, the Italians do not mind giving up a foul to slow the break and disrupt the rhythm. Italy recorded 20 fouls against Argentina in their opener, the most by a single team in a match thus far in the early stages of the tournament.

This strategy has been tested beyond just Argentina, as The Azzurre have recorded a clean sheet in three of their last four matches.

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Sweden vs Italy Pick

Sweden had a far from convincing victory in their opening match despite being one of the tournament favorites. Italy weren't any more convincing than The Blue and Yellow themselves, but they maintained a clean sheet.

However, there is a reason Sweden are third in the FIFA rankings and 13 spots above The Azzurre. They contain loads of quality. Sweden's style of play also happens to be Italy's kryptonite. The Blues have 15 defeats against Sweden, which is the joint-most they have against any country.

Sweden opened at a consensus favorite at -160. Those odds have now dropped as low as -110 at certain books. However, rather than be scared off by the line movement, I am welcoming it.

Back Sweden on the moneyline.

The Pick: Sweden ML (-110 via PointBet)

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