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Switzerland vs. Cameroon World Cup Odds, Pick: Goals to Come in Group G Match

Switzerland vs. Cameroon World Cup Odds, Pick: Goals to Come in Group G Match article feature image
Credit:

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Granit Xhaka.

Switzerland vs. Cameroon Odds

Thursday, Nov. 24
5 a.m. ET
FS1
Switzerland Odds -138
Cameroon Odds +450
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+130 / -163)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+105 / -143)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Switzerland and Cameroon kick off play in Group G with a crucial match that could decide who goes to the knockout stage.

The Swiss have been very impressive since the 2018 World Cup. They made it to the Euro quarterfinals two summers ago, pulling off a huge upset over France. Then, they won their World Cup Qualifying group over Italy, which is the main reason why Italy aren’t at the World Cup.

Cameroon come into the World Cup after some late drama, erasing a 1-0 first leg deficit with a goal in the 124th minute of the second period of extra time against Algeria in a playoff to qualify for the World Cup. Cameroon are the favorite to finish bottom of this group, so this is one of the matches they have circled as their best opportunity to pick up points. 

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Switzerland Full of Talent and Chemistry

Switzerland have a squad much like Denmark. This is a team that has been playing together for a really long time and understands what they want to do tactically, which is one of the most important aspects of international soccer. 

While Switzerland do not have much depth, their starting XI does have quite a lot of talent. We don’t know if Yann Sommer is going to be healthy by the time the World Cup starts but Dotmund’s Grego Kobel is a fine replacement. Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi are about as solid as it comes, with the very experienced Ricardo Rodriguez and Kevin Mbabu as the full backs. 

Then in the center of the park is the captain, Arsenal’s Granit Xhaka, who is in the form of his life for the Gunners this season. He’s enjoyed a more attacking role at Arsenal, which has translated to three goals and three assists. He also is in the 90th percentile for shot-creating actions and the 87th percentile for progressive passes per 90 minutes.

Xhaka will have to play a more defensive role in Switzerland’s team, but his ability to pick out passes and progress the ball up the pitch is vital to Switzerland’s success in possession. 

Granit Xhaka sent the Emirates WILD 🎉

(via @NBCSportsSoccer)pic.twitter.com/to6nV8tQKv

— B/R Football (@brfootball) October 1, 2022

Switzerland actually don’t average a ton of possession, but they do like to play out from the back and bait the opposing defense to press them high, which then frees up passing lanes to get the ball moving forward. So, Switzerland will be fine conceding a decent amount of possession to Cameroon to try and open them up. 

Breel Embolo has been in good form for Monaco this season, putting up a 0.64 xG + xAssist per 90 minute rate and Switzerland are very reliant on him getting behind the defense and getting on the end of a cross to create a chance. 

Cameroon Facing a Step Up in Level

This Cameroon team doesn’t have the big name we are used to seeing like Samuel Eto’o, and honestly the talent level isn’t that great comparatively to other teams in their group.

They do have a solid goalkeeper in Andre Onana and some fun attacking options like Lyon’s Karl Toko Ekambi and Brentford’s Bryan Mbuemo on the wings, with experienced striking options up top in Vincent Aboubakar and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. However, the defense and midfield are major question marks. 

Cameroon were incredibly impressive during the Africa Cup of Nations, creating a whopping 12.0 xG over their six matches, while only allowing 4.9. In fact, in the semifinals, they held Egypt to just 0.26 xG over 120 minutes before losing on penalties. 

The biggest problem with Cameroon is that while their run through the Africa Cup of Nations was impressive on home soil, they only played two countries ranked inside the Action Network’s top 100. Their two-leg victory over Algeria was also impressive, but Algeria beat them on xG 1.96 to 1.7 combined over the two legs. 

Cameroon recently made a managerial change, as Rigobert Song was hired on March 1st, after the Africa Cup of Nations. He’s been in charge for five matches, including the World Cup playoff against Algeria.

Song had them playing a 4-4-2, when during the Africa Cup of Nations, Cameron played a 3-4-3. The good news is Cameroon do have experience sitting in a low block, which is what they did for a large stretch in the second leg against Algeria. However, it’s only a 90-minute sample size and I worry if Cameroon have to play this style for three straight matches. 

Cameroon love to build up from the back, playing a slow style where they like to have over 50% of the ball. During the Africa Cup of Nations they had 12 build up attacks and 78 10-plus pass sequences, both of which were by far the most in the tournament, per the Analyst.

They also held over 50% possession in every single match. Cameroon may hold over 50% possession in this match, but without a strong midfield and defense, Switzerland could pick them apart on the counter. 

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Switzerland have a major experience and tactical advantage in this match, whereas Cameroon have only played a handful of matches under their new manager.

This also has the potential to be a higher scoring match than expected with Switzerland’s ability on the counter and Cameroon having good finishers in Aboubakar and Choupo-Moting. 

Additionally, Switzerland’s matches throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Euros averaged 2.88 xG per 90 minutes, while Cameroon’s matches throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Africa Cup of Nations averaged 2.58 xG per 90 minutes.

I have 2.4 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+130) 

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