Watford vs. Newcastle United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Hornets Have Value as Home Favorites (Sept. 25)
Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Ismaila Sarr.
Watford vs. Newcastle United Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League table when Watford welcomes Newcastle United to Vicarage Road Stadium on Saturday for their crucial match.
It has been a decent start with two wins in five for the Hornets in their return to the English top flight, while the Magpies will be searching for their first win of the young season.
In order to do that, they’ll need to buck the history of this fixture as Newcastle has won just once in its last nine away league matches against Watford.
Let’s break down where I see the betting value in this game.
Watford Coming Off Strong Road Result
Entering the weekend in 11th, there are definitely worse starts for clubs that make the jump up to the top flight, with Watford’s two victories coming at home against Aston Villa on the opening day and at Norwich last weekend.
The victory at Carrow Road last Saturday was really the perfect storm of defeating a potential relegation rival and getting your important attacking players off the mark early in the season.
Xisco was surely excited to see winger Ismaila Sarr grab a brace to add to the other goal he scored earlier in the year, and new summer signing Emmanuel Bonaventure (FC Köln) found the back of the net for the second time since joining the club.
The triumph also ended a run of three straight scoreless defeats for the Hornets.
Even with the win, it doesn’t paper over the cracks of the issues Watford has had creating chances this season as Xisco’s squad ranks near the bottom of the league in expected goals at 4.9, according to fbref.com.
Newcastle Struggling Early on Defensive Side
There are not many positives to take from Newcastle’s winless start to the season, with the only points coming in draws with Southampton and Leeds.
Manager Steve Bruce’s main cause for concern is his side’s struggles defensively, as the Magpies rank last in the league in expected goals against (11.3) and have given up the second-most goals with 13.
The lengthy injury list will not help Newcastle’s cause for this weekend as last season’s two top goal scorers in striker Callum Wilson and midfielder Joe Willock are both doubts for this match.
Club captain Jamaal Lascelles was also missing from training on Thursday, and Bruce could be without his two top keepers in Freddie Woodman and Martin Buravka.
The absentees will put even more pressure on French striker Allan Saint-Maximin to perform if the Magpies want to get anything out of this match, which he does have a pair of goals and assists through five matches.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Looking at the odds from DraftKings, Watford enters the match as +125 favorites on the moneyline, with a total shaded to the under 2.5 goals at -125.
I do like the home side in this game, but I’m not quite ready to fully back them as a favorite. My best bet for this match is to take the Hornets on the Asian handicap of -0.25 at -105.
The low total in the match tells you that a low-scoring draw is possible here, which is why I want to negate the loss with my bet if that happens.
You can’t ignore the important players that are likely to be held out at the weekend for Newcastle, and Watford has been a strong side at home.
Although it was in the EFL Championship, the Hornets have won 13 of their last 15 league games at home and will be looking to avoid back-to-back home defeats for the first time since November 2019.
Give me Watford at home in a cagey affair.
Pick: Watford -0.25 (-105)