West Ham United vs. Fulham Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Expert Picks & Prediction (Sunday, Oct. 9)
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Aleksandar Mitrovic (left) celebrates scoring the opening goal for Fulham FC.
- West Ham hosts Fulham on Sunday in London.
- Brett Pund breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
West Ham vs. Fulham Odds
|West Ham Odds||-140|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-126 / +104)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CNBC|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Kicking off Sunday’s slate in the Premier League, Fulham makes the trip across the capital to take on West Ham in a feisty London derby.
The Hammers will be on a short week, traveling back to England following a win in Belgium in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the Cottagers have been one of the biggest surprises in the EPL this season, coming into the weekend in eighth on 11 points.
However, the visitors will be without a very key attacker, which should give value to a low-scoring match in this one.
Following the run to the Europa League semifinals last season, fans had a lot of excitement for David Moyes’ team entering the campaign, especially after splashing some cash in the summer transfer window.
However, it has been a struggle, particularly with finding the back of the net. The Hammers only have five goals and six big scoring chances, which are both toward the bottom of the EPL according to fbref.com.
One promising sign has been the recent play of new striker Gianluca Scamacca, who scored in the victory against Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend and Anderlecht on Thursday.
There is a lot of pressure for his goal scoring to continue with the struggles of Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen in front of goal.
If West Ham is struggling to find a consistent forward, this has not been an issue for Fulham, thanks to Aleksandar Mitrović. The Serbian’s six league goals only trail Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland.
Unfortunately, Mitrović was subbed off in last weekend’s match with an injury, and he is doubtful to play in this fixture. With Bournemouth on deck, I doubt manager Marco Silva risks him in this game.
Another key figure that was missed last week was defensive midfielder João Palhinha, who should be up for the signing of the season if you remove Haaland from the conversation.
The Portuguese star leads the EPL in successful pressures (56) and is tied with Neco Williams for the most tackles (29). Palhinha should slot right back into the heart of the Fulham midfield after serving his suspension.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds over at FanDuel West Ham comes in as the favorite at -140 on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals. I’m not ready put my money behind the Hammers at this price, but I do see value in the total.
So, my best bet is to back the total falling under 2.5 goals at +104 odds.
This is a terrible travel spot for the hosts, who will be coming back late from Belgium on Thursday. In the other instances this season where the team played a midweek match in the Europa Conference League, this same bet has cashed in all three of those fixtures.
The Hammers have also had some low event games at The London Stadium, where the combined xG average per 90 minutes has been 2.1 and all four fixtures have finished under this same total. This is also a strong defensive unit, allowing the third-fewest expected goals per game (1.05) in the EPL.
Meanwhile, people will point to Fulham’s advanced metrics of -6.4 xGDiff and 15.6 expected goals allowed as troubling signs. However, most of this was done in defeats at Arsenal, Spurs and in a match against Newcastle, where the Cottagers played 82 minutes down a man due to an early red card.
Once you add in the return of Palhinha and the absence of Mitrović, this is not going to be a strong attacking side in this one.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+104)