World Cup Odds, Picks: The Argentina vs. France Defensive Prop to Bet
Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Theo Hernandez.
The World Cup odds are out for the match between France and Argentina, but you don’t need to limit yourself to traditional moneyline or title winner wagers to find value in the fixture.
There are a number of ways you can approach the match, such as props, alternate spreads or any number of other options.
Soccer expert Johnathan Wright breaks down the two markets you should be keeping an eye on in the World Cup, including a unique defensive prop on Theo Hernandez.
Johnathan Wright’s World Cup Picks
Theo Hernandez Over 1.5 Tackles (-145 via PointsBet)
It’s not a hot take to say France’s defense is their weaker side of play. However, Hernandez’s play deserves to be removed when making the argument.
The AC Milan left back wasn’t expected to get much action in Qatar, but after his older brother, Lucas Hernandez, went down with an ACL injury during the first minutes of France’s opening match, it was time for the younger brother to fill the void in France’s defense.
Since being subbed on in the 13th minute vs. Australia, Hernadez has played every minute for Les Bleus, except the unnecessary Tunisia match. He is 10th in the World Cup with 13 tackles, averaging 2.65 tackles per 90 minutes.
He has surpassed two tackles in every game where he has played 90 minutes and recorded seven combined tackles in the quarterfinal and semifinal matches. At -145 odds, there is an implied probability of 59.2% that Hernandez will cash this prop. However, assuming a Poisson Distribution, his 2.65 tackles per game imply he has a 74.2% chance of cashing this bet, providing us with great value.
You can also ladder this prop — +190 for three or more tackles and +475 for four or more tackles.
Kylian Mbappe Over 0.5 Goals (+188 via BetMGM)
The World Cup may already be written in the stars for Lionel Messi. However, that doesn’t mean his PSG teammate, Kylian Mbappe, will go down without a fight.
Mbappe has been the most explosive player in Qatar and leads the tournament with five non-penalty goals, eight chance creations from carries and he also has the most individual take ons (46).
The 23-year-old star has already had success against Argentina at the World Cup, finding the back of the net twice in France’s 4-3 Round of 16 victory in 2018.
Look for Mbappe to rekindle that past success on his path to claiming a second World Cup trophy before his 24th birthday. If he can’t ruin Messi’s big moment, he will undoubtedly try to walk away with the Golden Boot award, breaking their tie at five with a goal on Sunday.