Elena Rybakina enters Saturday's Australian Open final as an underdog against defending champion Aryna Sabalenka.
Kalshi's prediction market reflects Sabalenka's dominance at Melbourne Park, with the Belarusian favored at roughly a 60% probability ($0.60) to claim her third Australian Open crown. Heavy trading volume of over 1.4 million contracts across both markets shows significant interest in what is shaping up as a blockbuster rematch of the 2023 final, which Sabalenka won for her maiden Grand Slam title.
If you want to get in on the action, you can make Australian Open Final predictions on Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Australian Open Final Predictions, Odds
Both players have been flawless through six rounds, becoming the first women to reach a Grand Slam final without dropping a set since Venus and Serena Williams in 2008 at Wimbledon. This remarkable feat hasn't occurred at the Australian Open since Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters in 2004, and sets up what promises to be an intense battle.
The market pricing appears to factor in Sabalenka's recent dominance on hard courts and her unprecedented run to a fourth consecutive Australian Open Final — something only Evonne Goolagong and Martina Hingis had previously achieved in the Open era.
Rybakina's roughly 40% implied probability reflects her proven ability to challenge Sabalenka's power game with her own heavy hitting. The Kazakhstani may be peaking at the perfect moment, and her 2022 Wimbledon title demonstrates her ability to perform on the biggest stage, though she'll need to overcome the disappointment of losing their previous Melbourne encounter.
With both players being 34-6 lifetime at the Australian Open and wielding two of the most potent ground games on tour, the market's tight pricing suggests this rematch could deliver fireworks under the Rod Laver Arena roof.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
