Tennis legend Novak Djokovic enters Sunday's Australian Open final as a significant underdog against Carlos Alcaraz.
Prediction market data reveals a stark contrast in expectations, with Alcaraz commanding roughly 74% implied odds (74 cents) to claim his first Australian Open crown. Additionally, the betting volume has been substantial, with nearly 2.8 million contracts traded on Djokovic's market and over 2.6 million on the opposing side, indicating intense trader interest in this historic matchup.
If you want to get in on the action, you can make Australian Open Final predictions on Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Australian Open Final Predictions, Odds
Djokovic defied expectations by defeating two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner in an epic five-set semifinal that lasted over four hours on Friday night. The victory clinched Djokovic's 11th Australian Open final appearance and his first Grand Slam final appearance since his 2023 US Open triumph.
Alcaraz, the World No. 1, presents a formidable obstacle and, at 22, is aiming to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. The Spaniard survived his own five-set marathon against Alexander Zverev, enduring physical issues in a grueling five-hour, 27-minute semifinal battle that raises questions about both finalists' remaining energy reserves.
The market's heavy lean toward Alcaraz reflects several factors: his youth advantage, current world ranking, and Djokovic's age-related concerns. However, the Serbian's experience in high-stakes finals and his dominant 10 previous Australian Open titles suggest the roughly 26% market odds may undervalue his championship pedigree. Sunday's final promises a clash between tennis generations, with prediction markets clearly favoring youth over experience in Melbourne's title decider.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
