The first round of the 2025 US Open concludes on Tuesday, August 26, with Day 3 action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Below, you can find my Day 3 US Open predictions and best bets for two ATP matches: Nuno Borges vs Brandon Holt and Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo.
US Open Best Bets — Predictions for Day 3
Nuno Borges vs Brandon Holt Odds
| Borges Odds | -275 |
| Holt Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-125o / -110u) |
| Spread | Borges -4.5 (-125), Holt +4.5 (-110) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Let's get one thing straight, Brandon Holt's victory over Taylor Fritz at the 2022 US Open was a fluke.
There's nothing terribly wrong with Holt — he's just a very limited player. He lacks the weapons to jump the ranks quickly in his career, and his swashbuckling style from the back of the court just doesn't cut it with the errors he'll donate to opponents.
The biggest thing Holt's game lacks at the moment is experience, and his opponent on Tuesday has it in troves.
Nuno Borges isn't a clay specialist just because he's from Portugal — in fact, he's played much more meaningful tennis on hardcourts as a former Mississippi State tennis standout. The 28-year-old reached the fourth round here after taking out young upstart Jakob Mensik in a five-setter, and three years ago upset a young Ben Shelton in his US Open debut.
Borges has always played well in these surroundings — particularly with the more underrated bounces and speeds which can favor a hybrid clay-hardcourt archetype — and he should also have a considerable advantage in the rallies given his opponent's predictable pattern and passive play style.
I expect that the World No. 41 will look to make this a quick match, taking matters into his own hands early.
Pick: Borges -4.5 (-125 via DraftKings)
Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Odds
| Zverev Odds | -5000 |
| Tabilo Odds | +1800 |
| Over/Under | 30.5 (-110o / -110u) |
| Spread | Zverev -8.5 (+120), Tabilo +8.5 (-165) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Alexander Zverev and Alejandro Tabilo played a thriller on clay last year in the semifinals of Rome, and I think there's little stopping them from putting on another show Tuesday.
It's true, Zverev comes into this one with good form. The German made the semis of both Masters 1000 tournaments this summer, but he also didn't have much of a challenge on the way there — and did put forth two rather flat performances in those later matches.
While I think the form book may lie to us a bit with Zverev, who hasn't even taken many of his recent wins convincingly, I also think Tabilo is mispriced on hardcourts, which means we'll receive a nice discount in this match.
Tabilo went 13-5 on the surface during his breakout 2023 season, and even amidst a disappointing 2024 went 11-8. He's also 1-2 at the US Open, with the two losses coming in a tight three-set match and a four-set heartbreaker, and that illustrates a larger point: Tabilo raises his level at big tournaments, and particularly against the bigger players.
The Chilean has claimed some famous victories over the likes of Novak Djokovic and now I think he'll give Zverev a a decent push tonight. Tabilo's played enough matches to establish some level of form, and on top of that, these courts should play to his liking late at night, with the ball bouncing a bit higher in stickier conditions.
Pick: Over 30.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
