On Thursday, the US Open women's semifinals will commence in New York, with Aryna Sablenka taking on Jessica Pegula in the first match and Coco Gauff dueling Elena Rybakina in the nightcap.
Two Americans are in the mix for the title, but according to DraftKings, Sabalenka is still the favorite at +150.
Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below for the women's semifinals.
US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Thursday, Sept. 10
Sabalenka vs Pegula Odds
| Aryna Sabalenka Odds | -195 |
| Jessica Pegula Odds | +158 |
| Spread | Sabalenka -3.5 (+100), Pegula +3.5 (-150) |
| Over/Under | 22.5 (-115o / -130u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, Approx. 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
By: Tudor Cosma
Sabalenka has reached the semifinals of the US Open for the sixth time in a row, but her form doesn't seem ideal to me.
She's coming off failed tournaments in which she didn't even reach the quarterfinals, she lost a set 6-0 to Friday's opponent in Berlin and to Diana Shnaider at Roland Garros, and her overall game seems fragile.
She was only OK on serve against Taylor Townsend, and she prevailed with great luck against Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals, coming back from 2-4 in the decisive set.
Meanwhile, Pegula is very consistent, although she lost the first set against both Leylah Fernandez and Emma Navarro in this tournament.
Regardless, on Thursday, Pegula will have a huge motivation. She has the stadium on her side, and I think that Ben Shelton's victory over Carlos Alcaraz will inspire her greatly as the United States seeks a Grand Slam title on both the men's and women's side.
I expect her to win at least one set in this one. Therefore, I believe that Pegula won't lose by more than three games.
Pick: Jessica Pegula Game Spread +3.5
Gauff vs Rybakina Odds
| Coco Gauff Odds | -146 |
| Elena Rybakina Odds | +119 |
| Spread | Gauff -1.5 (-130), Rybakina +1.5 (-115) |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-165o / +105u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
By: Sean Paul
We’re at the semifinals phase of the US Open, and the most intriguing match of Thursday’s action is between new WTA No. 1 Rybakina and former 2023 champion Gauff.
Both Gauff and Rybakina had to rally after losing their first set in the quarterfinals, but Rybakina was the more impressive of the two.
Rybakina has the most potent serve in the WTA, leading in aces and saving 66% of her break points, the best mark of any player with more than 10 matches played.
To me, that’s the separator in this matchup. Rybakina can bail herself out of tough moments with her elite serve. Meanwhile, Gauff often gets herself into trouble with her serve, as she did with her 12 double faults against Mirra Andreeva.
Last year, Gauff looked dejected in a lot of matches due to her serving woes. While the double fault issue isn’t as bad as last year, she still has 80 more double faults than the next closest player in women’s tennis.
In that quarterfinal match, Andreeva beat herself in the final set. Gauff will need to cut down the double faults and forehand errors if she wants to reach the US Open finals once again because Rybakina won’t bail her out like the younger Andreeva did.
The line has Gauff as a -118 favorite and Rybakina as a -103 underdog, and I see real value in Rybakina.
When the two met last month in Toronto, Rybakina was a +120 underdog and won in three sets. The books are justifiably showing more respect to the new world No. 1, but I still think she should be the favorite to beat the American.
I just trust the more stable play of Rybakina opposed to Gauff, whose tendency to hit unforced errors makes her unpredictable.
Pick: Elena Rybakina ML +119
