Flushing Meadows in September has a way of settling debates a whole season couldn't, and this year's storyline reads like two men circling the same throne. The defending champion returns to a Grand Slam draw he hasn't played all year. The season's most in-form player wants to turn 2026 into a lasting reign. That's the shape of Polymarket's 2026 Men's US Open Winner prediction market right now, and since this piece will keep updating as the tournament plays out, treat it as a running guide, not a single snapshot.
Polymarket US Open Winner Prediction Market Right Now
Prediction markets work differently from a ranking or a bracket. Each player has a contract that trades based on how likely the crowd thinks they are to lift the trophy, and that price moves in real time with every match, injury update, or practice-court rumor.
Jannik Sinner, the man who was supposed to make this whole conversation moot, is out with a knee injury, and his absence alone rearranged the board, opening a gap three very different résumés are now racing to fill.
Carlos Alcaraz Returns To A Field That Moved On Without Him
Carlos Alcaraz still sits at the top of the market, and the résumé explains why: two of the past four US Open titles, including last year's, plus a run to the 2026 Australian Open crown that made him the youngest player in tennis history to complete all four majors.
Four rounds in, that early rust is gone.
Alcaraz cruised past Tommy Paul in the fourth round, stretching his Grand Slam match win streak to 18 straight: a run that spans last year's US Open title and January's Australian Open crown.
Today he faces his toughest test yet: eighth seed Ben Shelton, the power-serving American who gets a shot at the two-time champion on Arthur Ashe with the home crowd behind him. Shelton isn't shy about the scale of the task, calling the level Alcaraz has shown since returning from his layoff "superhuman."
Alcaraz takes on Shelton tonight at Arthur Ashe Stadium, not before 7 p.m. ET, following the Pegula–Navarro match in the night session.
Alexander Zverev Looks to Turn a Career Season Into a Reign
While Alcaraz recovered from an ongoing wrist issue, the German quietly built the best season of his career: a first Grand Slam title at the French Open, then a run to the Wimbledon final, and now the tournament's top seed with Sinner out of the draw.
At 29, his height and serve have always suited hard courts, he was the 2020 US Open runner-up, and this season suggests he's finally put the full package together just as his biggest rivals are compromised.
That case only got stronger this week.
Zverev cruised past Luciano Darderi in straight sets to reach his fifth career US Open quarterfinal, and next up is Botic van de Zandschulp, the Dutch underdog who survived a five-hour, two-sets-down comeback just to get this far.
The Shock Heard Around Queens: Novak’s Historic Exit
The tournament's first massive shock landed on Sunday evening. The tennis world was completely stunned when Mariano Navone pulled off a historic upset over 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic.
That monumental loss from the Serbian legend sent shockwaves through the Polymarket board, completely reshaping the standings. Right now, the third spot on the board previously held by Novak belongs to Ben Shelton, who boasts an 8% chance of taking the title at Flushing Meadows.
Who Else Could Make Noise in New York
With Shelton now the man standing between Alcaraz and the semifinals, the board's other real long shot is Frances Tiafoe.
The 11th seed has reached the semifinals twice before, in 2022 and 2024, and he's chasing a return trip today against unseeded Alex Michelsen, who has never made it past the opening round at Flushing Meadows in four previous tries. There are just four contracts carrying real weight right now: Alcaraz, Zverev, Shelton and Tiafoe.
Who Could Win The US Open
If we had to pick a winner now, it may be Alcaraz.
The layoff questions that shadowed him in the early rounds are gone: an 18-match Grand Slam win streak and a clean run to the quarterfinals answer them well enough. Zverev remains the clearest threat behind him, carrying the best season of his career into the final stretch.
But best-of-five tennis over two weeks has a way of punishing certainty, and Shelton, Tiafoe, or whoever survives Wednesday's other half of the draw only needs one big night to change the conversation.
New York will have the final say, the way it always does, and the market will keep moving with every match, and so will this page.
