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The Golden State Valkyries (2-0) and Las Vegas Aces (0-2) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on Peacock/NBCSN.
The Aces are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 156.5 (-112o / -108u). The Aces are a -180 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +146 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks. Don't forget to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Valkyries vs. Aces Odds, Pick
- Valkyries vs. Aces Spread: Valkyries +3.5 (+100), Aces -3.5 (-122)
- Valkyries vs. Aces Over/Under: 156.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Valkyries vs. Aces Moneyline: Valkyries +146, Aces -180
- Valkyries vs. Aces Best Bet: Valkyries +3.5
Valkyries vs. Aces Preview
The defending champion Aces have their backs against the wall Friday night after going down 2-0 to the Golden State Valkyries in the Western Conference semifinals.
The biggest surprise for this potent Aces team has been the fact that they've been held to just 70.5 points per game this series by this stingy Valkyries defense.
What would concern me if I'm the Aces is that they've outshot the Valkyries from the three-point line by 5% and are still down 2-0 thanks to getting annihilated on the glass.
Golden State has a 39% offensive rebound rate in this series compared to just 12.7% for Vegas, with an overall rebounding advantage of 41 to 25 per game.
Valkyries vs. Aces Prediction
Coming into these playoffs, TSI had Golden State power-rated No. 1 in the league despite Minnesota being a consensus #1 among league pundits, so the model has not adjusted a whole lot based on what we've seen so far.
For Game 3, TSI is projecting the Valkyries -3 with a total of 156.5, so I'm going back to the well with the better team.
The Valkyries defense is holding the Aces to 10% below their season average on effective field goal %, and is shooting just 32% from three themselves, so it's not like they've been the beneficiary of hot shooting; they're just winning the gritty points, doing the dirty work, and winning with depth — something Las Vegas does not have.
The interesting thing that seals the deal here is that the Aces were actually 3 points worse at home this season from a power rating perspective, while Golden State had essentially the same rating on the road as they did at home.
Defense travels, and I'm riding with Natalie Nakase's team once more.
Best Bet: Valkyries +3.5 (-100, FanDuel)
