Liberty vs Aces Odds, Picks for Game 1 | WNBA Finals Betting Preview

Here's everything you need to know about Liberty vs Aces odds and picks for Game 1 in our WNBA Finals betting preview.

Currently, the Aces are 4.5-point favorites (-4.5) vs the Liberty in Game 1 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, with the Aces -172 on the moneyline to win outright. The total is over/under 170.5 points scored by both teams combined.

Here's our betting expert's prediction and pick for Liberty vs Aces in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals:

The WNBA Finals matchup we have all been dreaming of is finally here. And just when we thought all our ducks were in a row, Candace Parker threw a wrench in the system:

Now, I don't think Parker is actually going to be playing in this series, let alone Game 1, but the Aces have been very quiet about this injury, so it's 'who knows' to a certain degree.

If we just focus on the knowns, I am all over the Liberty. I covered this from a broad series preview lens, as well as a player props perspective, but for this article, we'll look at Game 1 specifically.

Let's break down the WNBA Finals Game 1 odds and make our Liberty vs Aces Game 1 pick.

The key for the Liberty is going to be making sure they keep Jonquel Jones on the court. With their full starting five, they really put the Aces in a bind. The Aces are forced to either go small with Alysha Clark in for Kiah Stokes, or keep Stokes in the game for rebounding purposes. However, she really can't hang with these two units. She was a -38 in just 82 minutes in the five games between these two teams this season. She's just not mobile enough to hang with either of Breanna Stewart or Jones, which is the Liberty's biggest strength.

Head coach Sandy Brondello knows this, and as such, should look to have Jones on the court whenever she is able. Jones' minutes load this postseason has been totally different than in the regular season. In fact, her six highest minutes totals of the season have been her six postseason games. Even just prorating Jones' rebounds/minute from the regular season, Jones should get to over her 11.5 prop (although the juice cancels that). Add in the fact that the Aces have been a below league average rebounding team since losing Parker, and Jones' rebound prop is a best bet.

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The Aces will need to take advantage of their biggest strength in this matchup — backcourt scoring. In my player prop preview, I noted how both Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have had lots of success scoring against the Liberty this season. Both players have scored at least 15 points in each game versus New York, thanks to Kelsey Plum drawing the Betnijah Laney matchup most often (though Courtney Vandersloot did draw the assignment at times recently).

If the Aces are going to win, they need Gray and Young to continue to succeed against their Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu matchups. Gray is the player I am more confident will continue to do so (her track record in the playoffs is bulletproof), and her point prop is lower, so I'll be looking to her point total over 15.5.

As for Las Vegas' marquee player, A'ja Wilson, I'm just avoiding her props. On the one hand, she has struggled in this matchup all season, but on the other, she has been absolutely slaying the postseason, so I want no part of fading her right now.

As noted in previous previews, I will be taking the Liberty both on the spread (+5, DraftKings) and moneyline (+172, FanDuel) for Game 1. I love the way they matchup with the Aces, especially with Jones now regularly playing 35+ minutes a night.