Liberty vs. Sky Odds, Picks, Predictions | WNBA Betting Preview (Sept. 3)

The New York Liberty look to stay hot as they head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Sky.

Both teams are in tight races for their respective playoff spots (first and eighth, respectively), and if each were to land where they want, they'd be facing off in Round 1.

This is the fourth and final matchup of the season for these teams and the Liberty have won two of three so far. New York is also playing its best basketball, and Chicago hasn't proven itself reliable. All that being said, there is a bit to like with how the Sky match up with the Liberty.

Before we look at how the Sky match up with the Liberty, I want to look at how one player on the Liberty may match up with the Sky. Jonquel Jones is a well we've gone to over and over again in the second half of the season, and she's treated us well for the most part. She's averaging 10.7 rebounds per game since the All-Star Break, and has reached double digits in over half those games (11 of 18), with a rebound prop that often comes in at 9.5.

In fact, almost the only times she doesn't clear that prop is when she's in foul trouble, or when there's a blowout (hold that thought). She gets into foul trouble more than she should, but the good news Sunday is that the Sky draw the fewest fouls per game, and that's especially true among their frontcourt players. Add in the fact that the Sky are allowing the highest number of offensive rebounds per game since Emre Vatansever took over as head coach, and this is my favorite bet for the game. Last game, Jones was at 8.5 rebounds juiced to the over, but based on this matchup, I could see a 9.5 (-105 over) being the opener.

I would take the over 9.5 all the way to -125 (or over 10.5 to -105).

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Ok, unhold that thought! I don't see this being a blowout for a couple of reasons. For one, the Sky are starting to look good again and have won three of their past four. They also have a core that's laser-focused on getting this final playoff spot.

The Sky also have a strong defensive scheme that should help them stick around with the Liberty. No team allows fewer points from beyond the arc than the Sky this season. That was true under James Wade and has remained true under Vatansever,

Chicago can get absolutely wrecked in the paint sometimes, but when it comes to getting burned from deep, no team is better at avoiding that than the Sky. The 3-point arc has been a massive weapon for the Liberty all season and they've only leaned further into their 3-point reliance in the second half of the season.

The line opened at Liberty -7.5 and took money on that side, so there likely isn't a rush on this bet. If it gets out to double-digits, it's a must-bet for me. Otherwise, I think waiting to see what number is available is a smart approach to this matchup.

The side is more of a lean for me, especially at this point in the season with a sharper market and the general wonkiness of last-season play, but the Jones play is a full recommend.

Jones also has a high rebound ceiling, so if you are one to ladder, this is a good spot to do so.

Pick: Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 Rebounds | Sky +8.5