Sparks vs. Aces Odds, Picks, Predictions | WNBA Betting Preview (August 19)

The Los Angeles Sparks and Las Vegas Aces face off on Saturday afternoon at 3:00 p.m. on ESPN2.

The Aces are fresh off a pair of massive spotlight games against the Liberty, which they split. They won the latter, though they certainly would have preferred the former, the Commissioner's Cup Final. The Sparks, on the other hand, have had a full week off and haven't played since last Saturday.

The Aces are 17.5-point favorites, which might seem crazy, but it's a fitting number for an Aces team that has absolutely run teams out of the gym at Michelob Ultra Arena all season. Among their 16 regular season home games, only two have been decided by single digits. They're also yet to lose at home. (They did lose the Commissioner's Cup at home, of course.)

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The Sparks are fresh off a three-game win streak of their own and have looked much better since the All-Star break. They are 5-5 with a +1.4 net rating since the break, both of which rank fourth in the league in that span.

Los Angeles has done so thanks to a finally healthy(ish) squad. Azura Stevens is fully back in the swing of things, and though Lexie Brown and Chiney Ogwumike are still on the shelf, Curt Miller finally has the majority of his roster at his disposal, which makes this team better than its record suggests.

Jordin Canada has put together a strong case for Most Improved Player, while Nneka Ogwumike should get First Team All-WNBA consideration. That duo, surrounded by whomever Miller is feeling on that night, has proven to be a very palatable combination during this stretch.

For the Aces, the biggest thing will be keeping their focus after massive games against their burgeoning rivals in New York. The Sparks force the third-most turnovers per game in the WNBA and can punish a team that's not fully focused.

The good news for Las Vegas is that the Sparks are the worst team in the W at punishing the Aces in the way the Liberty were able to in the Commissioner's Cup Final — by slamming the offensive glass. The Sparks rank last in the W this season in second-chance points.

All things point to this being a letdown spot for the Aces. It's the final game of a four-game home stretch (five if you count the Commissioner's Cup) and a far less intimidating opponent than they've played in their past two games. Chelsea Gray and Co. were clearly up for that most recent game against the Liberty, and it's going to be hard to not let up — at least a little.

The Sparks have been an elite fourth quarter team all season. Conversely, the fourth is the one quarter the Aces have been just average in this season. That's mostly due to their large leads, but that's the beauty of betting a 17.5-point underdog — there's plenty of room for a backdoor cover.

This is a lean more than a best bet, but I'm backing the Sparks to cover the 17.5 points on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Sparks +17.5