There are 5 WNBA games on the slate for Tuesday, May 27, but three in particular stand out.
When looking over today's WNBA odds, I found value in three games — Wings vs. Sun, Storm vs. Lynx and Sky vs. Mercury — and have detailed my WNBA best bets below.
So, continue reading for today's expert picks and analysis.
The Sun rank as the second-worst in offensive rating and once you adjust for schedule strength (they’ve had it easier than most), I have them graded as the worst offense in the league thus far.
Their defensive rating (105.4) looks shaky on paper — third worst — but they’ve also had the third-toughest schedule defensively, and I have them grading out around league average after adjustment.
Meanwhile, the Wings have had a weird start — ranking 10th in schedule-adjusted offense and sixth on defense. They have scoring talent, but head coach Chris Koclanes has struggled to build a coherent offensive structure. Until that improves, their games will likely skew toward being lower scoring than expected.
This matchup sets up well for the under, with both offenses likely to continue struggling (especially the Sun), and both defenses probably being a bit better than the market is giving them credit for.
I’m projecting this closer to 160, so I'm still showing a decent edge here.
We cashed on Storm +4.5 the other day against the Aces. The line closed around +6/+6.5, but Seattle rolled 102–82. Now, they face the 4–0 Lynx, who sit second in title odds and remain a top-three team in my power ratings, but it’s worth noting that they’ve had by far the easiest schedule to start the season.
Their defensive rating ranks sixth — a bit underwhelming considering the soft slate — and there might be early signs of vulnerability, particularly inside. Minnesota has allowed the third-highest field goal percentage at the rim, while Seattle ranks third in makes inside five feet per game. That gives the Storm a steady offensive floor and a real shot at keeping this one close — or even pulling off another upset.
I’m projecting this closer to +5, so grabbing +7.5 while it’s still available offers solid value.
The Sky have the second-worst offense in my schedule-adjusted ratings — and while their brutal schedule (toughest in the league) means some improvement is likely, this doesn’t feel like the right spot for it.
That’s because Phoenix ranks No. 1 in schedule-adjusted defensive rating, making this a tough matchup for a struggling Sky offense to get back on track.
Chicago also ranks last in raw defensive rating (114.5), but when adjusting for opponent quality and pace — they’ve faced the fastest and highest-scoring teams — the underlying metrics aren’t quite as bleak.
