WNBA Finals: The Liberty’s Uphill Climb Against the Aces

The Aces Core Four has been unstoppable and is on the brink of becoming just the third back-to-back champions in WNBA history and the first since the Los Angeles Sparks in 2001 and 2002.

In Game 1, Kelsey Plum (26 points), Jackie Young (26), Chelsea Gray (20) and A'ja Wilson (19) combined to score 91 of the Aces 99 points and shot 32-for-58 (55%) from the field, 9-for-20 (45%) from 3 and 18-for-21 (85.7%) on free throws. In Game 2, Wilson (26), Young (24), Plum (23) and Gray (14) nearly one-upped themselves with 87 points on 53/44/100 shooting.

As a Liberty bettor, here's why I feel stupid: The first two games almost feel predictable when armed with the benefit of hindsight. The ineffectiveness of the Courtney Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu backcourt, particularly on defense, but also on offense, has been exposed.

Betnijah Laney was a godsend over the past two months and has bucked two noted trends with her last performance. Game 2 was the first time Laney netted an under for point total, while shooting at least 10 field goal attempts, since August 6. It was also the first time she's had back-to-back unders since August 11 and August 13.

Breanna Stewart is shooting 36.4% from the field and 20.5% from 3 in the playoffs while averaging 19.3 points, 9.5 boards and 2.8 assists per game — down from about 23/9/4 in the regular season. Jonquel Jones is really the only Liberty player who has consistently brought it. Across the first two games, Jones is up to 38 points, 20 rebounds and five blocks while shooting 15-for-24 (62.5%) from the field and 7-for-9 (77.8%) on free throws.

History says nah. The Liberty's defense says nope. And the Aces say FOH. There isn't much for the Liberty to point to for optimism.

Again: No team has come back from down 2-0 in the WNBA Finals to win the title, or even force a Game 5.However, there are two historical things worth pointing to for some precedent that the Liberty could potentially bend in their favor. The 2006 Detroit Shock, 2007 and 2009 Phoenix Mercury, and the 2017 Minnesota Lynx all came back from down 2-1. Additionally, two teams have won a WNBA Finals Game 5 on the road — the 2007 Mercury and the 2016 Sparks.

The Liberty beat the Aces in both games they've played at Barclays Center this season and also beat the Aces once in Las Vegas in the Commissioner's Cup Final. So, if the Liberty win Game 3, there are some historical factors that point to them potentially emerging victorious.

However, no team has done what the Liberty will try to do, and no one has done it against a team as good as the Aces. But, we can argue that the Liberty, at their best, are also among the most talented teams ever put together, which is why we were looking forward to these Finals to begin with.

Leftover Actionable Bets… While You Still Can
I noted that the Aces still had decent plus-money wagers following Game 1 for exact series, but even now, there are still some worthy of your time. But of course, the bulk of the value sits with the Liberty.

• Aces are -140 to sweep, +260 to win in four, and +500 to win in five. I like Aces in four the most, but find all of those to be really playable.
• The Liberty are +900 to win the series, which they can only do in five games, and +120 to win Game 3, where they're +2.5 underdogs. I still think the Liberty have at least one game in them, that being Sunday. Personally, I think I'll play the Liberty at +120 for Game 3, but Aces in four at +260.