WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Bets for Sparks vs. Sun & Wings vs. Mystics (Saturday, August 28)
Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Allisha Gray.
- The playoff race is tight in the WNBA, with just one-half game separating teams for the No. 8 seed.
- There are two games on Saturday night with postseason implications, and Michael Arinze has a pick for each.
- Check out his breakdowns and predictions below.
It will be quite a race to determine the eighth and final remaining playoff spot in the WNBA. That’s where the New York Liberty currently find themselves, but four straight losses have allowed the Sparks and Mystics to come back into contention.
All three teams are separated by a half-game, with Los Angeles and Washington yet to play this weekend.
Interestingly, both the Sparks and Mystics have at least two games in hand compared to the Liberty. As a result, New York is the team most likely to miss out on the postseason out of the three teams.
This will, of course, all be settled on the court, so let’s jump right into the two games on the docket for Saturday night.
Projected WNBA Odds
|Matchup||Time||Proj. Spread||Proj. Total|
|Sparks vs. Sun||7 p.m. ET||Sun -9.66||151.46|
|Wings vs. Mystics||7 p.m. ET||Even||160.52|
Sparks vs. Sun
|Moneyline||+470 / -700|
|Time||Saturday, 7 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel.|
Injuries & News
Los Angeles lists three players on the injury report. Kristi Toliver (9.4 points per game) is questionable with an injury on her left hand, while Chiney Ogwumike (7.8) and Jasmine Walker are ruled out with knee injuries.
Alyssa Thomas is the only Connecticut player on the injury report. She is unlikely to play this season after tearing her Achilles while playing overseas.
This game is a rematch of Connecticut’s 76-72 victory just two days ago. Connecticut opened as an 11-point favorite, but now sportsbooks have adjusted their number down to 10.5.
The Sparks are ninth in the league and currently on the outside of the playoffs looking in. They clearly need this game more than the Sun, and I think this number is a tick too high for two teams that should be quite familiar after their recent encounter.
Teams catching at least 10 points are 243-188-15 for 42.26 units in the league. In fact, underdogs have covered the last seven games in this spot and 12 of the last 13.
My model projects the Sun as less than a 10-point favorite, so I like the value with the visiting Sparks getting 11 points.
Let’s turn our attention to the total which closed at 146 when the two teams met on Thursday. The bookmakers are hanging that same number again in the rematch. Historically, when Connecticut has a total of 146 or less, the over is 24-21-2.
More importantly, the over has cashed in the last five games in this spot, and it’s 7-2-1 in the last 10 games.
I’ve decided to add the over to my card, and I’ll look to combine it with the Sparks on a two-team 4.5-point teaser at +103 odds.
Pick: Sparks +10.5
Bonus: Two-team 4.5-point teaser with Sparks +15 and over 141 (+103)
Wings vs. Mystics
|Moneyline||+110 / -135|
|Time||Saturday, 7 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM.|
Injuries & News
Allisha Gray (11.5 points per game) and Satou Sabally (12.4) are both ruled out for Dallas.
The Mystics list both Elena Delle Donne (13.7 points per game) and Tina Charles (25.4) on the injury report. Delle Donne’s issue is undisclosed at the moment and she’s questionable, while Charles is out indefinitely with a hip injury.
This game is another rematch of two teams that played on Thursday. Dallas defeated the Mystics 82-77, but it’s important to note that Delle Donne left the game after playing 12 minutes. In the first half.
“She was taken out kind of precautionary,” Thibault said. “On that play under the basket where she got a couple attempts, it just didn’t feel right to her, took her out, and we’re at that point right now we’re not risking anything. So precautionary, we’ll see what she’s like tomorrow.”
Those words are far from encouraging for the former two-time WNBA MVP, who’s coming off multiple back surgeries within the span of a year.
Even with Delle Donne listed as questionable, I don’t see how anyone could be confident she’ll play.
Given the injury report for both teams, I project this game as a pick’em, but Delle Donne’s availability could give me a reason for pause. It’s always difficult to sweep one of these series against the same team within a short span.
While I have a slight lean to the Wings, I don’t think I’ll be upgrading them to an official play before tip-off.
Lean: Wings +2.5