WNBA Picks: Odds, Best Bets for Wings vs. Aces, Mercury vs. Sky & More (July 30)
Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Arike Ogunbowale of the Dallas Stars.
All season these WNBA Sunday slates have been a treat, but this Sunday is the big kahuna of them all. All 12 WNBA teams are in action, with tip-offs starting around 1 p.m. ET and running to about 8 p.m ET.
The race for the top seed is seemingly already settled, but those Las Vegas Aces get a fun test in the form of a Dallas Wings team that has given them one of their two defeats.
That's the standout game, but there's plenty of intrigue across the rest of the slate.
The Minnesota Lynx somehow won their first game without Napheesa Collier in New York. Now, they travel a few hours northeast to face the other top team located in that area, the also 18-6 Connecticut Sun. Another win for the Lynx, and it's full-on Ewing Theory time.
The grind of missing three of their starters looked to really hit Washington their last time out, as they suffered their worst defeat of the season to the Wings. They now get another stiff road test in the form of the Atlanta Dream. Can Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud bounce back, or do they need the rest of their starting lineup back ASAP?
The aforementioned Liberty have to be furious about dropping a game at home to the Lynx without their best player. Are the Sparks going to suffer the brunt of that spilled-over frustration, or is something just a little broken in the Big Apple?
The final two games pit four of the teams with the worst records in the W against each other, but guess what — there are still plenty of bets to be made on those games.
That's why we're here, right? So, let's dig in and enjoy this full buffet of action with WNBA Best Bets today.
WNBA Odds & Picks
Click on a game to skip ahead.
|Lynx vs Sun||1 p.m. ET|
|Mystics vs Dream||3 p.m. ET|
|Storm vs Fever||4 p.m. ET|
|Mercury vs Sky||4 p.m. ET|
|Liberty vs Sparks||4 p.m. ET|
|Wings vs Aces||6 p.m. ET|
Lynx vs. Sun Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
While the Lynx won their last game without their top player and jokingly drew a Ewing Theory comment in the introduction, missing Napheesa Collier is not a long-term road to success.
Collier is the team leader in points (by a mile), usage, win shares (by two miles) and on-off rating this season while ranking second or third in basically every other statistic. She's been making a borderline MVP case despite playing for a sub-.500 team.
So, how did the Lynx beat the Liberty last time out?
The biggest piece was likely Kayla McBride. The 10th-year guard went 11-of-14 from the field and led the way with 26 points. K-Mac can have those types of games, but she has also struggled massively with consistency in her career. She could certainly go on a brief, little scorching run with Collier out, but betting on it is a fool's errand.
Diamond Miller, however, is the player I want to look at when it comes to props.
Miller's usage has been high for a rookie all season, and it has consistently gotten a bump when Collier is off the court. Miller got off 15 shots and 11 free throws last game, and while the books have adjusted a bit, I think there's value on her points props still at 16.5. The Sun defense in the frontcourt is stronger than in the backcourt, and Miller should be able to give Tiffany Hayes and Natisha Hiedeman some trouble today.
However, from an overall game perspective, this really feels like the spot we see why Collier mattered so much. This line opened at Sun -11 and has already moved to 12.5. I have it all the way out at Sun -15, so I also like the Sun on the spread.
Mystics vs. Dream Odds
-115 / -105
-115 / -105
From a spread perspective, this game opened with a ton of value on the Dream. I have them as 6-point favorites on a neutral court over this version of the Mystics, so there's still some value even at the current Dream -6.5 number.
One thing to pay attention to is that the Mystics typically get off to better starts than the Dream, so if you missed the best of the number, you could potentially wait to bet this live. And if both teams follow their standard operating procedure, you might be able to catch the Dream moneyline around even money at some point early on.
Despite that lean to the Dream, it's once again the underdog to whom I turn for my top player prop.
I won't belabor the point too much since it was in my player props preview this week, but Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud point total overs are once again the play. Both players went under last game, but that was the result of missed shots rather than a dip in usage, which I would've weighed much heavier.
Now, part of those missed shots could be the result of having to carry this offense without the other three starters, and for that reason, I likely won't be playing escalators on those two today as I've done in recent games. But I still like the standard point total overs for both in a game against the team that gives up the fourth-most points per game and plays at the fastest pace.
Speaking of which, I'm going to trust the over here once again, but I'll be targeting the first half in case the Mystics' legs wear down as the game progresses.
Storm vs. Fever Odds
-108 / -112
-108 / -112
In our first matchup of the duds, the spread has settled right around where I make it, so it's once again to the land of the player props for this game.
This is a running theme in this article, but it's one of the better ways to look for angles on player props. Since NaLyssa Smith went on due to injuries on July 9, Erica Wheeler has taken a much bigger role in the offense, going from 8.8 points per game to 13.6.
The books gave us 9.5 last game, and while that has been bumped to 11.5 this game, there's still some value on that over.
The other best bet I have is somewhat strange. These two teams have the two best offenses in the fourth quarter this season. Now, a good chunk of that is because they're often trailing and going against teams that are either playing their subs or not trying their hardest. But even in closer games, these two teams have been fourth-quarter darlings.
As such, if you can find a total for this fourth quarter pregame (BetRivers typically offers it but not until closer to tip-off), I'll be looking to the fourth quarter over for this game.
Bet: Erica Wheeler Over 11.5 Points · 4Q Over
Mercury vs. Sky Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The season from hell continues for the Mercury, as fans learned that Brittney Griner will be taking off at least the next two games to prioritize her mental health. One can only imagine the after-effects of her time in Russia and the spotlight she has taken on since, so hopefully she can come back with a healthy mind and body.
From an on-court perspective, this is obviously massive news, as Griner has been by far the best player for the Mercury this season. Teams should really find a way to beat up on this "bleh" Mercury defense, and that's where I'm turning for this best bet.
The game has seen the under take money, but the Sky team total should be heading in the other direction.
The Sky are the second-lowest scoring team in the league, but there have been signs of life lately with a pair of 90-point games just within their last three games. Now, they get a Mercury team without their most essential defensive player.
Diana Taurasi's likely retuen is actually good news for the Sky offense, as the vet can still get buckets but really doesn't do anything on the defensive end.
Bet: Sky Team Total Over 80.5
Liberty vs. Sparks Odds
-112 / -108
-112 / -108
I wrote an in-depth preview for this game, so be sure to check that out here.
Wings vs. Aces Odds
-114 / -106
-114 / -106
This is the final game of the day and rather easily the best game to watch from a non-betting perspective. This matchup pits the best team in the league against a team that in many ways is a lesser version of itself.
The Wings can balance perimeter and post play better than arguably any team in the league outside of the Aces, and if you look at the key factors where the Aces succeed — points in the paint, fastbreak points, 3s attempted, running away and hiding in the third quarter — the Wings mirror them to a T.
The biggest difference is A) the talent (duh), and B) that the Aces are the second-best 3-point shooting team, while the Wings are the worst.
Part of that comes down to personnel and the fact that the Wings' highest-usage player tends to get a little heat-check happy at times. But I do think a portion of that is luck, and that in single-game samples, that luck can certainly flip from beyond the arc.
That's why I think there's a bit of value on the Wings moneyline +490. They've already beaten the Aces once this season, and while that came at home, this Wings team has been road warriors for multiple seasons now. As always, it's a matter of implied odds.
Do I think the Wings are likely to win on Sunday? No. Do I think they have a better than 16.95% chance to win (the implied odds of a +490 moneyline)? I do, so that will be where I go with my best bet today. I would bet this to Wings +400.