Nick Giffen

Favorite TD bet of the week

Tyrod Taylor over 31.5 Pass Att (-111 at DK 1u) Tyrod Taylor 35+ Pass Att (+180 at B365 0.25u) Tyrod Taylor 40+ Pass Att (+610 at DK 0.1u) Tyrod Taylor 45+ Pass Att (+1600 at B365 0.1u) Taylor has averaged 33.9 pass attempts per 100% of snaps played, and there's room for optimism for more here agains the Ravens. The three games that Taylor played came against three teams (BUF, TB, CAR) that rank inside the top 10 in time of possession per game. Well, the Ravens average just 28:55 minutes with the ball in QB Lamar Jackson's seven starts, which would rank them 24th right behind...the Jets! Further, in Jackson's seven starts, opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens. The most likely scenario here is Baltimore leading in the second half, which would speed pace up relative to league average by 0.25 seconds per play, but if that lead jumps to a touchdown or more, that pace vs. league average jumps to 1.75 seconds per play faster based off these two teams' paces this year in this scenario. Additionally, on Tyrod Taylor drives this year, the Jets passing rate over expectation (PROE) is +6.7% compared to -12.3% on Fields drives, and since that's adjusted to expectation where expectation is a heavy trailing script, we could see Tyrod rip off a ton of attempts Joe Flacco style. I'm laddering 35+, 40+ and even 45+ at 16-1

🪜 35+

🪜 40+

🪜 45+

Two TDs earlier this year against CLE's man coverage (jets play 6th most man), and with no Bateman he's likely to see a handful of routes against a soft secondary All 3 targets this year have come with no pressure on Lamar, Jets the lowest pressure team Lamar will have faced this year

Week 12 Sched Adj Expected Score TT edges

I'm showing almost 32 in schedule adjusted expected scores, and everything else matchup-wise just adds positives

Josh Downs over 4.5 1st Qtr Rec Yds (-112 at DK) The Colts have chosen to receive the kickoff 100% of the time they have won the coin toss, while the Chiefs have deferred 100% of the time. As a result, barring some coaching decision oddities, the Colts are almost guaranteed to start with the ball. That's been the case in 9 of 10 colts games this year, including 8 of the 9 games Downs has played. Downs has cleared 4.5 1st quarter receiving yards in 8 of 9 games as well, only failing to do so in the most recent game against the Falcons which may be lowering this line more than it should be. Downs has more than 55% of his total receiving yards on the season in the 1st quarter, and his full game line is 33.5, so clearly there's value here if we just applied that direct ratio. Yes, the Colts are expected to trail here more than they have all season, but 5 yards is just under 15% of his full game line. Also, the matchup is solid as the Chiefs allow the most targets per route run (TPRR) to slot receivers in the NFL, and allow the fifth highest catch rate on targets to the slot. Rather than facing outside corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, Downs will get Christian Roalnd-Wallace who allows the most TPRR of KC's top three corners. I love this line at 4.5, and am totally fine if you only have FanDuel's 5.5 line available to you. Downs has 10+ 1st Qtr receiving yards in 7 of 9 games, so a ladder here of 10+ is viable as well.

🪜 10+

🪜 20+

Michael Carter over 1.5 receptions (-120 at B365, -125 at MGM) Emari Demercado is out, but even without his absence, Carter returned to his role of 30-40% routes run (and actually put up almost 50%) that he had in Weeks 5-7. We can probably conservatively pencil Carter in for around 35% of routes, which would be about 14 routes on QB Jacoby Brissett's projected 39.5-40 dropbacks. Carter has been targeted on 20% of his routes run with Brissett at QB, but that should probably increase here against Jacksonville who allow the eighth-most targets per game to the position. If we project Carter for around 0.225 targets per route, that's closer to 3.15 targets, which, at a 70% catch rate would equate to around 2.2 projected receptions. Notably, Carter has cleared 1.5 receptions in all four games he's run at least 30% of routes, including 3 of 3 with Brissett at QB. I have him more like 64% to clear 1.5 receptions, and I'm probably being a bit conservative with Carter's projected routes run rate. Making this a 1.5u play and also taking 3+ at +250 at 36t for a quarter unit

🪜 3+ alt line