Andy Ruiz vs. Luis Ortiz Boxing Odds & Prediction: 3 Ways to Bet Heavyweight Headliner

Andy Ruiz vs. Luis Ortiz Odds

The feast of heavyweight boxing continues this weekend as Andy Ruiz Jr. (34-2, 22 KOs) steps through the ropes for his first fight in over a year to meet the 43-year-old Cuban fighter Luis Ortiz (33-2, 28 KOs) for what could be a surprisingly fun clash of styles and body types.

Sunday's pay-per-view headliner (9 p.m. ET main card) is one of those let’s-see-who-still-has-a-future fights, and right away the oddsmakers understandably think it’ll be the younger man Ruiz who prevails in that endeavor.

But don’t underestimate Ortiz, who’s big and powerful and still crafty, with the ability to surprise anyone who doesn’t show up focused and in shape. And wouldn’t you know it, those are the two variables that people still wonder about with Ruiz.

The fact that Ruiz is still a -400 favorite for Sunday’s bout at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles? That suggests that oddsmakers think he’ll have both factors under control this time.

Ruiz Can't Get Reckless Against Ortiz

Even 13 years into his pro career, Ruiz’s success as a heavyweight still seems to shock some people. Physically, he’s not terribly imposing. In a division with giants like Tyson Fury, or Greek statues like Deontay Wilder, the 6-foot fat man is easily overlooked by anyone who’s relying too heavily on the eye test.

Before you see the guy move, he seems somehow both too small (read: short) and too big (read: pudgy around the middle) to be a top heavyweight. Then he lets those hands fly with both quickness and power and, yeah, suddenly you get it.

His big break came when he stepped in as a replacement against Anthony Joshua in a heavyweight title fight in 2019, and shocked the world with a seventh-round TKO win.

Six months later, Ruiz was back in the ring for a rematch with Joshua, and the moment he took off his shirt, you got the sense that success had propelled him more to the dinner table than the gym. Ruiz weighed in at 283.5 pounds for that rematch – a little more than 15 pounds heavier than he was for the first fight. He also just seemed less interested, less motivated, and less focused for the second fight.

The result was a pretty easy decision win for Joshua, while Ruiz was left to answer questions on how he could have let himself down like this for the (new) biggest fight of his life.

Against Ortiz he faces a big, powerful heavyweight who is nonetheless deep into middle-age. Ortiz can still hit, and he’s tricky enough to give some of the more basic heavyweights problems.

However, he doesn’t have Ruiz’s hand speed, and it’s hard not to wonder if he’s even thinking beyond this fight’s payday at this point.

One thing you can still say for Ortiz is that he’s not easy to finish. His only two losses came against Wilder, and both times Wilder needed the later rounds to finally get rid of Ortiz, who often does his best work early in a fight.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly racked up the finishes of late – his last fight saw him go the distance with Chris Arreola last May – but there’s reason to think he might be motivated to get Ortiz out of there in order to prove that he’s still in the title conversation at heavyweight.

Failing to finish a 43-year-old fighter wouldn’t be the best look for Ruiz. Then again, neither would losing, which could absolutely happen if he gets reckless in search of the knockout.

Ruiz vs. Ortiz Pick

All indications are that Ruiz is in good shape and enjoying life with his revamped team, so some of the leftover concerns from the Joshua rematch might not be applicable here.

Oddsmakers seem to favor Ruiz to win it inside the distance, with a -135 line from DraftKings on Ruiz via TKO.

I could easily see this one going the distance, so Ruiz via decision at +260 is very tempting and probably worth a small play. I also like the -115 line on the fight going over 8.5 rounds, though if I were really looking for a bigger payoff, I’d take a very hard look at FanDuel’s +600 line on Ruiz in Rounds 10-12.

Leans: Over 8.5 rounds (-115) | Andy Ruiz Jr. Wins via Decision (+260) | Andy Ruiz Jr. Wins in Round 10-12 (+600)