Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery Odds, Pick & Prediction: Bet on Early KO in Early-Morning Bout (Monday, May 6)

Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery odds for Monday, May 6.

Whenever Naoya Inoue fights, it’s an international event.

He’s arguably the best pound-for-pound boxer in the sport.

He’s the second boxer to become undisputed in two weight classes in the four-belt era after the other with a real claim to pound-for-pound in No. 1 Terence Crawford.

Early on Monday morning (4 a.m. ET, ESPN+) from the Tokyo Dome in Japan, Inoue (26-0, 23 KOs) looks to defend his undisputed super bantamweight crown against rival and former super bantamweight champion Luis Nery (35-1, 27 KOs).

Here's my Inoue vs. Nery pick and prediction for Monday morning.

Inoue vs. Nery Breakdown & Analysis

So before telling you why Inoue is the more complete fighter, let’s also note that this fight is personal.

Nery had been banned from boxing in Japan by the country’s boxing commission after testing positive for zilpaterol around the time he stopped Shinsuke Yamanaka in Round 4 of their bantamweight title bout in 2017. Yamanaka, who had been undefeated, was the bantamweight champion for six years running prior to his loss. As a result of the test, they had a rematch in 2018, in which Nery came in three pounds overweight and stopped him in the second round.

Nery is 2-0 in Japan with two knockouts.

Inoue is, again, all-around better, as he typically is leading into his fights.

Inoue is a heavy favorite, as expected, and seemingly has advantages in power, speed, precision, defense and many of the checkpoint categories and attributes that matter. He’s also going to have a reach advantage over fellow 5-foot-5er Nery, 67.5 inches to 65.

Inoue broke down a tough Marlon Tapales in December to unify all four major world titles in the division, stopping him in Round 10. Inoue has knocked out seven straight opponents going back over four years, and 15 of his last 16 opponents.

So what’s Nery’s shot?

It’s boxing. We just saw Ryan Garcia pull off an upset-of-the-year contender while being an underdog against Devin Haney in similar odds territory.

If you’re going to back an underdog, especially on the road, they need punching power, and Nery – like Garcia – absolutely has that despite being at a skill disadvantage.

The problem is, Haney couldn’t hurt Garcia, and Inoue hurts everyone.

As for Nery, he’s also riding a hot streak into this bout. He most recently knocked out Froilan Saludar in Mexico in July in Round 2 of their bout. He enters this contest having won four straight, three by knockout.

However, he was knocked out by former super bantamweight and current interim featherweight champion Brandon Figueroa in Round 7 of their May 2021 unification scrap.

The knockout was a body shot knockout and not a TKO, which Inoue specializes in as well.

Inoue vs. Nery Prediction & Pick

I already bet Inoue by knockout or technical knockout between Rounds 1-6 at +120 at DraftKings. As of this writing, you can get an even better price of +137 at bet365.

I’m not mad at Rounds 7-12 at +160 odds (via FanDuel), but you probably don't want to play the KO/TKO straight up at -500 unless you have deep pockets and are willing to risk a lot to win just a bit.

But I think Inoue handles business early. He wants to end this dude – it’s personal with his country – and Nery defensively isn’t hard to find. He’ll bring the fight, even to his detriment.

Enjoy the fight and don’t go broke.

The Pick: Naoya Inoue in Rounds 1-6 (+137 at bet365)