Best Bets Across Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 & La Liga (April 22-23)

We've reached the stretch run of the club soccer calendar with realistically only the Bundesliga title still up for grabs. There are some great matches across Europe this weekend, including Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig, Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid, Juventus vs. Napoli and Lyon vs Marseille.

If you'd like to see my projections for the Premier League, along with all three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League), you can find them here.

If you'd like to listen to the audio form of this article, I am also part of the Wondergoal Podcast with my co-hosts Michael Leboff and Anthony Dabbundo.

If you'd like to see picks from me for all European leagues, you can follow them in the Action Network App.

Bundesliga

Projections

Gladbach vs Union Berlin 

This is a good spot to fade Union Berlin.

Gladbach are much better when they are holding a majority of the possession, which will be the case in this match. In matches where Gladbach have held more than 50% possession, they have a +3.9 xGD. In matches where they’re holding under 50% possession, they have a -4.4 xGD.

They’re also one of the biggest home/road split teams in the Bundesliga. At home this season they have a +9.9 xGD, but away from home they have a -9.4 xGD. Union Berlin have not been good away from home this season, putting up a -6.1 xGD.

The issue here for Gladbach is they’ve been poor in transition defense and they’re one of the worst teams at defending crosses. However, they’re a top five set piece defense, which is big against Union Berlin since that is how they’ve scored 39.5% of their non-penalty goals this season.

I have Gladbach projected at +102, and I like the value on them here.

Pick: Gladbach ML (+135)

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Serie A

Projections

Salernitana vs. Sassuolo

Salernitana are the biggest luck-box across Europe for a second straight season. They have drawn six straight matches and have a -4.2 xGD in those six matches. Since he arrived at Salernitana, Guillermo Ochoa has made 52 saves in 13 matches. His post-shot xG +/- is sitting at +3.0 and it would be a lot higher if it weren’t for the eight goals he allowed against Atalanta.

For the season, Salernitana have a -25.3 xGD, which is the worst in Serie A. They’re one of the most passive teams in Italy, ranking near the bottom in PPDA, and they're dead last in progressive passes + dribbles allowed. Offensively, Salernitana are one of only four teams in Serie A averaging under 1 xG per 90 minutes.

Sassuolo have some really good underlying offensive metrics. They’re averaging 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes, which is eighth-best in Serie A. They are one of the best teams at progressing the ball up the pitch, averaging the third-most progressive passes and dribbles in the league.

Sassuolo dominated Salernitana in their previous meeting, winning the match 5-0 and winning on xG 3.2 to 0.5.

Pick: Sassuolo ML (+125)

La Liga

Projections

Real Valladolid vs Girona

This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Girona have been a significantly better team than Valladolid this season. They are sitting with a +1.1 xGD on the season, while Valladolid are at -23.1.

Real Valladolid are one of the worst defensive teams in La Liga and they’ve been poor recently. Over their last eight matches they’ve conceded 18.3 xG and all but one opponent has created over 1.5 xG. They’ve also been running hot offensively as of late, scoring 10 goals off of 8.4 xG in their last eight matches.

Girona are an above-average offensive team in La Liga. They’re averaging the ninth-most npxG per 90 minutes and they’ve been really good against the bottom half of the La Liga table, averaging 1.57 xG per 90 minutes.

They beat Valladolid in the previous meeting, winning the match 2-1 and edging them on xG 1.7 to 0.6, so I have no reason to believe why they can't do the same here on the road.

I have Girona projected as a favorite on the road, so I like the value on them draw no bet.

Pick: Girona – Draw No Bet (+104)

Ligue 1

Projections

Lorient vs Toulouse 

I'm not sure Lorient should be this significant of a favorite. Before the World Cup break, Lorient were flying high, having won six straight matches at one point. Then they sold their two best attackers Teemu Moffi to Nice and Dango Ouattara to Bournemouth. Those two guys combined for a 0.77 xG per 90 minutes for the club and Bamba Dieng just hasn’t been able to put up the same type of scoring rate up top as Moffi did.

Before the World Cup break, Lorient were averaging 1.42 xG per 90 minutes in Ligue 1. After the World Cup break and selling Moffi and Ouattara, Lorient are only averaging 1.01 xG per 90 minutes.

On top of that, Lorient have been one of the worst defenses in Ligue 1. They’re allowing 1.52 npxG per 90 minutes and are dead last in almost every single defensive metric, including xThreat, box entries allowed and progressive passes and dribbles allowed.

Toulouse are an above-average offense in Ligue 1, ranking ninth in npxG. I really don’t think Lorient should be a +120 favorite at home, so I like the value on Toulouse.

Pick: Toulouse – Draw No Bet (+125)

English Championship

Projections

Bristol City vs Rotherham United

This match is the definition of the "must win" tax being factored into the odds.

Rotherham are five points clear of the drop zone with three matches left to play, so a result here would almost ensure their safety in the Championship next season, while Bristol City are going to finish in the middle of the table no matter what.

This match comes down to Rotherham's performances at home versus on the road this season, which have been drastic.

There is almost a full xG difference per 90 minutes in their performances at home versus on the road. Bristol City, on the other hand, have been good at home, with a +5.6 xGD this season.

Rotherham have also run pretty hot defensively, as they've only allowed 38 goals from open play off of 46.2 xG. A lot of that has is due to their goalkeeper Viktor Johansson, who has been a +5.6 post shot xG +/- keeper this season. However, he is injured and out.

Bristol City controlling the pace and possession in this match is going to be key. Rotherham are an extremely direct team that bypasses the midfield frequently.

I have Bristol City projected at -132, so I like the value on them at -105.

Pick: Bristol City ML (-105)